Start Tanner McKee or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 6:21 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Baker Mayfield over Tanner McKee

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.6; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 29 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Tanner McKee

QB · PHI · vs DAL

Market projects: 16.5; fantasy pts
DAL D vs QB: 21.4; 5th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: High; 94 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Tanner McKee for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games), Tanner McKee 144 (14.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Tanner McKee, 16.6 to 16.5 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Tanner McKee in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.6 points and Tanner McKee at 16.5, a gap of 0.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Market coverage on Baker Mayfield is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.6 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 215 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (3, 4 and 6 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.5 fantasy points for Tanner McKee, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Tanner McKee is 212 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (9, 10 and 11 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.1 points ahead of Tanner McKee on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Tanner McKee and PHI host DAL on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

DAL allowed 21.5 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 5th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 239 yards and 1.8 touchdowns a game against DAL, with 0.2 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Tanner McKee has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Tanner McKee is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 6, Tanner McKee played 100 percent of PHI snaps, dropped back 48 times and threw an average of 8.0 air yards per attempt.

Tanner McKee, Week 6 against CAR: 64 of 64 snaps, 26 of 45 passes for 215 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Tanner McKee played 4 games for PHI and scored 14.8 PPR points, 3.7 a game, finishing QB55.

He completed 24 of 43 passes for 274 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, and ran 8 times for 8 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 3 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Tanner McKee, Week 18 of 2025 against WAS: 21 of 40 passes for 241 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 3 yards, 12.9 PPR points.

Tanner McKee, Week 16 of 2025 against WAS: 4 of 70 snaps, 0 of 0 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for -2 yards, -0.2 PPR points.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Tanner McKee for Baker Mayfield?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games), Tanner McKee 144 (14.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Tanner McKee, 16.6 to 16.5 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Tanner McKee?
No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 159 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.9 a game over 10 games), Tanner McKee 144 (14.4 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Tanner McKee, 16.6 to 16.5 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.