Start Tyler Shough or Baker Mayfield? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 6:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Paris, set your lineup before then.

Start Tyler Shough over Baker Mayfield

Start

Tyler Shough

QB · NO · vs PIT

Market projects: 17.2; fantasy pts
PIT D vs QB: 12.9; 4th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 66 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 34 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Tyler Shough?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Tyler Shough projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Tyler Shough over Baker Mayfield, 17.2 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Tyler Shough over Baker Mayfield in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Tyler Shough at 17.2 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.0, a gap of 1.1. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Drafters take Tyler Shough at ADP 147 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Tyler Shough, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Tyler Shough is 233 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 0-1 interceptions, 15 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (10, 14, 7, 12 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 7 and 12 market sources).

That puts Tyler Shough 1.1 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Tyler Shough and NO host PIT on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

PIT allowed 12.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 4th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 222 yards and a touchdown a game against PIT, with an interception a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Tyler Shough is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Tyler Shough played 100 percent of NO snaps, dropped back 255 times and threw an average of 7.8 air yards per attempt.

Tyler Shough, Week 3 against LV: 74 of 74 snaps, 29 of 42 passes for 255 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 36 yards.

Tyler Shough, Week 4 against ATL: 74 of 74 snaps, 30 of 48 passes for 286 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards.

Tyler Shough, Week 5 against MIN: 45 of 45 snaps, 16 of 25 passes for 96 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Tyler Shough, Week 6 against NYG: 70 of 72 snaps, 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 33 yards.

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Tyler Shough played 11 games for NO and scored 164.0 PPR points, 14.9 a game, finishing QB26.

He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Tyler Shough?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Tyler Shough projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Tyler Shough over Baker Mayfield, 17.2 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Tyler Shough for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Tyler Shough: he projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Tyler Shough over Baker Mayfield, 17.2 to 16.0 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.