Should I drop Kyler Murray for Caleb Williams?

Not on these numbers alone. Kyler Murray projects 168 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.8 a game over 10 games) and Caleb Williams 167 (18.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Kyler Murray, 17.2 to 16.9 projected PPR points.

Start Kyler Murray or Caleb Williams? Week 8

Updated Oct 27, 11:41 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Caleb Williams over Kyler Murray

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · at SEA

Market projects: 17.2; fantasy pts
SEA D vs QB: 11.6; 2nd fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 53 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 7

Sit

Kyler Murray

QB · MIN · at DET

Market projects: 16.9; fantasy pts
DET D vs QB: 26.3; most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Moderate; 44 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 84%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Kyler Murray?

Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games) and Kyler Murray 168 (16.8 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Kyler Murray, 17.2 to 16.9 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Caleb Williams over Kyler Murray in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 17.2 points and Kyler Murray at 16.9, a gap of 0.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Both numbers are scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and Kyler Murray at 139. Market coverage on Caleb Williams is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 17.2 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 226 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (7, 9 and 8 market sources).

Player markets imply 16.9 fantasy points for Kyler Murray, with 70 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Kyler Murray is 215 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (10, 12 and 12 market sources).

That puts Caleb Williams 0.3 points ahead of Kyler Murray on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI visit SEA on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

SEA allowed 11.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 158 yards and 1.1 touchdowns a game against SEA, with 1.1 interceptions a game.

Kyler Murray and MIN visit DET on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

DET allowed 26.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 312 yards and 2.7 touchdowns a game against DET, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Kyler Murray has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Kyler Murray is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 150 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Through Week 7, Kyler Murray played 84 percent of MIN snaps, dropped back 151 times and threw an average of 6.9 air yards per attempt.

Kyler Murray, Week 3 against TB: 59 of 59 snaps, 15 of 29 passes for 168 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 4 against MIA: 78 of 78 snaps, 27 of 37 passes for 247 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 21 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 5 against NO: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 29 passes for 229 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 7 carries for 54 yards.

Kyler Murray, Week 7 against IND: 59 of 59 snaps, 14 of 24 passes for 150 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 41 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Kyler Murray played 5 games for ARI and scored 80.8 PPR points, 16.2 a game, finishing QB38.

He completed 110 of 161 passes for 962 yards, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 29 times for 173 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Kyler Murray?
Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 167 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 9 games) and Kyler Murray 168 (16.8 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Kyler Murray, 17.2 to 16.9 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Kyler Murray for Caleb Williams?
Not on these numbers alone. Kyler Murray projects 168 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (16.8 a game over 10 games) and Caleb Williams 167 (18.5 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 8 the call starts Caleb Williams over Kyler Murray, 17.2 to 16.9 projected PPR points.

Should I drop Kyler Murray?