Start Lamar Jackson or Caleb Williams? Week 7

Updated Oct 22, 11:41 AM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 21, 4:54 PM ET: Ravens' Lamar Jackson returns to practice but status remains unclear vs. Bengals (ESPN)

Start Lamar Jackson over Caleb Williams

Start

Lamar Jackson

QB · BAL · vs CIN · Questionable

Market projects: 19.2; fantasy pts
CIN D vs QB: 17.3; 16th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 26 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 88%; Through Week 4

Sit

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs NE

Market projects: 18.6; fantasy pts
NE D vs QB: 14.6; 6th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: High; 97 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 6

Should I drop Lamar Jackson for Caleb Williams?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 185 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 10 games), Lamar Jackson 115 (11.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Lamar Jackson over Caleb Williams, 19.2 to 18.6 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Lamar Jackson is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Lamar Jackson over Caleb Williams in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Lamar Jackson at 19.2 points and Caleb Williams at 18.6, a gap of 0.6. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Lamar Jackson's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Lamar Jackson at ADP 57 and Caleb Williams at 87. Market coverage on Lamar Jackson is 45 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 19.2 fantasy points for Lamar Jackson, with 45 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Lamar Jackson is 0.4 touchdowns (6 market sources).

Player markets imply 18.6 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 245 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 20 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 14, 12 and 13 market sources).

That puts Lamar Jackson 0.6 points ahead of Caleb Williams on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Lamar Jackson and BAL host CIN on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CIN allowed 17.3 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 16th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 245 yards and a touchdown a game against CIN, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Caleb Williams and CHI host NE on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

NE allowed 14.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 6th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 228 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against NE, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Lamar Jackson has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable with a ankle injury.

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 4, Lamar Jackson played 88 percent of BAL snaps, dropped back 111 times and threw an average of 10.4 air yards per attempt.

Lamar Jackson, Week 1 against IND: 68 of 68 snaps, 17 of 24 passes for 324 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 43 yards.

Lamar Jackson, Week 2 against NO: 58 of 58 snaps, 21 of 30 passes for 235 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 34 yards.

Lamar Jackson, Week 3 against DAL: 64 of 64 snaps, 15 of 20 passes for 186 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 6 carries for 50 yards.

Lamar Jackson, Week 4 against TEN: 33 of 64 snaps, 15 of 20 passes for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 20 yards.

Through Week 6, Caleb Williams played 96 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 111 times and threw an average of 6.4 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 1 against CAR: 75 of 75 snaps, 21 of 29 passes for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 10 carries for 65 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Lamar Jackson played 13 games for BAL and scored 221.9 PPR points, 17.1 a game, finishing QB20.

He completed 192 of 302 passes for 2549 yards, 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 67 times for 349 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 92 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Lamar Jackson for Caleb Williams?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Caleb Williams projects 185 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 10 games), Lamar Jackson 115 (11.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Lamar Jackson over Caleb Williams, 19.2 to 18.6 projected PPR points. So make the move after his Week 7 game. Lamar Jackson is listed questionable.
Should I drop Caleb Williams for Lamar Jackson?
No. Keep Caleb Williams: he projects 185 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 10 games), Lamar Jackson 115 (11.5 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Lamar Jackson over Caleb Williams, 19.2 to 18.6 projected PPR points. Lamar Jackson is listed questionable.