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Start Tyler Shough or Caleb Williams? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 11:01 AM ET.

Start Caleb Williams over Tyler Shough

Start

Caleb Williams

QB · CHI · vs TB

Market projects
18.8
fantasy pts
TB D vs QB
13.1
4th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside
Rising
66 of 100 at QB
Snap share
97%
Through Week 8
Sit

Tyler Shough

QB · NO · vs CLE

Market projects
16.3
recent weeks avg
CLE D vs QB
14.2
7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside
Rising
77 of 100 at QB
Snap share
100%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Caleb Williams for Tyler Shough?

Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and Tyler Shough 151 (16.8 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Tyler Shough.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Caleb Williams over Tyler Shough in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Caleb Williams at 18.8 points and Tyler Shough at 16.3, a gap of 2.5. Caleb Williams's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Tyler Shough this week yet, so his 16.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6 and 7 (16.6 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Caleb Williams at ADP 87 and Tyler Shough at 147.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 18.8 fantasy points for Caleb Williams, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Caleb Williams is 251 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.3 rushing touchdowns (5, 6 and 3 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Tyler Shough yet. His market-based projections were 16.6 and 16.0 points in Weeks 6 and 7, an average of 16.3, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Caleb Williams 2.5 points ahead of Tyler Shough on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Caleb Williams and CHI host TB on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

TB allowed 13.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 8 games, the 4th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 220 yards and 1.3 touchdowns a game against TB, with 1.5 interceptions a game.

Tyler Shough and NO host CLE on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CLE allowed 14.2 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 8 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 215 yards and 1.4 touchdowns a game against CLE, with 0.8 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Tyler Shough has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Caleb Williams is not on the injury report.

Tyler Shough is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Caleb Williams played 97 percent of CHI snaps, dropped back 186 times and threw an average of 7.5 air yards per attempt.

Caleb Williams, Week 2 against MIN: 64 of 74 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 138 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 5 carries for 42 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 6 against ATL: 77 of 77 snaps, 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 4 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 7 against NE: 69 of 69 snaps, 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 19 yards.

Caleb Williams, Week 8 against SEA: 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Through Week 7, Tyler Shough played 100 percent of NO snaps, dropped back 296 times and threw an average of 7.3 air yards per attempt.

Tyler Shough, Week 4 against ATL: 74 of 74 snaps, 30 of 48 passes for 286 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards.

Tyler Shough, Week 5 against MIN: 45 of 45 snaps, 16 of 25 passes for 96 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Tyler Shough, Week 6 against NYG: 70 of 72 snaps, 16 of 30 passes for 144 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 33 yards.

Tyler Shough, Week 7 against PIT: 57 of 57 snaps, 30 of 38 passes for 278 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 7 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Caleb Williams played 17 games for CHI and scored 325.2 PPR points, 19.1 a game, finishing QB5.

He completed 330 of 568 passes for 3942 yards, 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and ran 77 times for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 99 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Tyler Shough played 11 games for NO and scored 164.0 PPR points, 14.9 a game, finishing QB26.

He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards, 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and ran 45 times for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Caleb Williams for Tyler Shough?

    Not on these numbers alone. Caleb Williams projects 148 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (18.5 a game over 8 games) and Tyler Shough 151 (16.8 a game over 9 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Tyler Shough.

  • Should I drop Tyler Shough for Caleb Williams?

    Not on these numbers alone. Tyler Shough projects 151 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.8 a game over 9 games) and Caleb Williams 148 (18.5 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Caleb Williams over Tyler Shough.

Should I drop Tyler Shough?

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board