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Start Michael Penix Jr. or Sam Darnold? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 12:11 AM ET.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Madrid, set your lineup before then.

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Sam Darnold

Start

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs CIN

Market projects
16.4
fantasy pts
CIN D vs QB
17.1
16th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
99%
Through Week 8
Sit

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs ARI

Market projects
15.2
recent weeks avg
ARI D vs QB
22.7
3rd most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
89%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Sam Darnold?

Not on these numbers alone. Michael Penix Jr. projects 118 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.8 a game over 8 games) and Sam Darnold 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Sam Darnold.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Sam Darnold in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Michael Penix Jr. at 16.4 points and Sam Darnold at 15.2, a gap of 1.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Michael Penix Jr.'s number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Sam Darnold this week yet, so his 15.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (14.6, 15.1 and 15.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.4 fantasy points for Michael Penix Jr., with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Michael Penix Jr. is 223 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (7, 7 and 7 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Sam Darnold yet. His market-based projections were 14.6, 15.1 and 15.8 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 15.2, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Michael Penix Jr. 1.3 points ahead of Sam Darnold on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Michael Penix Jr. and ATL host CIN on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

CIN allowed 17.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 16th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and a touchdown a game against CIN, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

Sam Darnold and SEA host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 22.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 244 yards and 2.4 touchdowns a game against ARI, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Sam Darnold has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.

Sam Darnold is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Michael Penix Jr. played 99 percent of ATL snaps, dropped back 59 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 7 against SF: 68 of 69 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 213 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 2 yards.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 8 against TB: 8 of 24 passes for 125 yards, 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, 5 carries for 11 yards.

Through Week 7, Sam Darnold played 89 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 196 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 4 against LAC: 60 of 60 snaps, 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 5 against SF: 63 of 63 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 6 against DEN: 85 of 85 snaps, 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 19 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 7 against KC: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games for ATL and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He completed 166 of 276 passes for 1982 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Sam Darnold?

    Not on these numbers alone. Michael Penix Jr. projects 118 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.8 a game over 8 games) and Sam Darnold 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Sam Darnold.

  • Should I drop Sam Darnold for Michael Penix Jr.?

    Not on these numbers alone. Sam Darnold projects 122 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 8 games) and Michael Penix Jr. 118 (14.8 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Sam Darnold.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board