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Start Michael Penix Jr. or Baker Mayfield? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 4:36 AM ET.

Early kickoff: 9:30 AM ET in Madrid, set your lineup before then.

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Baker Mayfield

Start

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs CIN

Market projects
16.4
fantasy pts
CIN D vs QB
17.1
16th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
99%
Through Week 8
Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CHI

Market projects
16.0
recent weeks avg
CHI D vs QB
19.9
10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
96%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Michael Penix Jr. 118 (14.8 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Baker Mayfield. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Baker Mayfield in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Michael Penix Jr. at 16.4 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.0, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Michael Penix Jr.'s number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Baker Mayfield this week yet, so his 16.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (16.0 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.4 fantasy points for Michael Penix Jr., with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Michael Penix Jr. is 222 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (7, 7 and 7 market sources).

No Week 9 player market is posted for Baker Mayfield yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.0 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 16.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Michael Penix Jr. 0.4 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Michael Penix Jr. and ATL host CIN on Sunday at 9:30 AM ET.

CIN allowed 17.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 16th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 254 yards and a touchdown a game against CIN, with 0.7 interceptions a game.

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Michael Penix Jr. played 99 percent of ATL snaps, dropped back 59 times and threw an average of 7.2 air yards per attempt.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 7 against SF: 68 of 69 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 213 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 2 yards.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 8 against TB: 8 of 24 passes for 125 yards, 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, 5 carries for 11 yards.

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and threw an average of 8.4 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 8 against ATL: 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 15 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games for ATL and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He completed 166 of 276 passes for 1982 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Baker Mayfield?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Michael Penix Jr. 118 (14.8 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Baker Mayfield. So make the move after his Week 9 game.

  • Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Michael Penix Jr.?

    No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Michael Penix Jr. 118 (14.8 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Baker Mayfield.

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board