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Start Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold? Week 9

Updated Nov 2, 10:31 PM ET.

Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CHI

Market projects
16.0
recent weeks avg
CHI D vs QB
19.9
10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
96%
Through Week 8
Sit

Sam Darnold

QB · SEA · vs ARI

Market projects
15.2
recent weeks avg
ARI D vs QB
22.7
3rd most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
89%
Through Week 7

Should I drop Sam Darnold for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Sam Darnold 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.0 points and Sam Darnold at 15.2, a gap of 0.8. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Baker Mayfield this week yet, so his 16.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (16.0 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Sam Darnold this week yet, so his 15.2 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (14.6, 15.1 and 15.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 133 and Sam Darnold at 155.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Baker Mayfield yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.0 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 16.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

No Week 9 player market is posted for Sam Darnold yet. His market-based projections were 14.6, 15.1 and 15.8 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 15.2, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.8 points ahead of Sam Darnold on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Sam Darnold and SEA host ARI on Sunday at 4:25 PM ET.

ARI allowed 22.7 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 244 yards and 2.4 touchdowns a game against ARI, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Sam Darnold has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Sam Darnold is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and threw an average of 8.4 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 8 against ATL: 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 15 yards.

Through Week 7, Sam Darnold played 89 percent of SEA snaps, dropped back 196 times and threw an average of 7.0 air yards per attempt.

Sam Darnold, Week 4 against LAC: 60 of 60 snaps, 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 5 against SF: 63 of 63 snaps, 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 1 carry for 5 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 6 against DEN: 85 of 85 snaps, 27 of 49 passes for 278 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 2 carries for 19 yards.

Sam Darnold, Week 7 against KC: 69 of 69 snaps, 20 of 28 passes for 257 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 17 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Sam Darnold played 17 games for SEA and scored 249.4 PPR points, 14.7 a game, finishing QB13.

He completed 323 of 477 passes for 4048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and ran 35 times for 95 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 96 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Sam Darnold for Baker Mayfield?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Sam Darnold 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold.

  • Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Sam Darnold?

    No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games), Sam Darnold 122 (15.3 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold.

Week 8 on the board

Elsewhere on the board