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Trade Chase Brown for Justin Jefferson? No, Brown is worth 11 more.

No on value. Chase Brown is worth 74 rest of season and Justin Jefferson 63, so giving up Brown costs 11. Brown rates 15.7 market points a game with 10 games left, Jefferson 15.4 with 10. On usage, Brown has 63 percent of CIN carries and 15 percent of its targets; Jefferson has drawn 26 percent of MIN targets. Brown hosts TEN in Week 8 (14th most points allowed to RBs); Jefferson is at DET in Week 8 (3rd most points allowed to WRs). Neither carries an injury designation this week.

The verdict, Week 8

Keeping Chase Brown wins by 11.

Chase Brown 7463 Justin Jefferson

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Chase Brown

RB11CIN

74

value, #16

Pts/game
15.7
Games left
10
Bye
6
Chase Brown weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
16.117.412.0no projection14.715.7

Justin Jefferson

WR8MIN

63

value, #24

Pts/game
15.4
Games left
10
Bye
6
Justin Jefferson weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
15.43.22.8no projection15.615.8

Where the values come from

Brown is the 11th running back on the chart and 16th overall. His 15.7 a game is 7.4 above the replacement running back's 8.3, over 10 games left with no bye left, which is how he comes to 74.

Jefferson is the 8th receiver on the chart and 24th overall. His 15.4 a game is 6.3 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 10 games left with no bye left, which is how he comes to 63.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had Chase Brown at 16.1 in Week 3, 17.4 in Week 4, 12.0 in Week 5, 14.7 in Week 7 and 15.7 in Week 8, a median of 15.7 points a game, flat across them.

Parlae's market-based projections had Justin Jefferson at 15.4 in Week 3, 3.2 in Week 4, 2.8 in Week 5, 15.6 in Week 7 and 15.8 in Week 8, a median of 15.4 points a game, flat across them.

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Points so far against the price

Chase Brown has scored 74.8 PPR points in 6 games, 12.5 a game, 3.2 a game less than the 15.7 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished RB7 with 282.6 PPR points in 17 games, 16.6 a game.

Week 1 vs TB: 18.8 points (RB14 that week), 56 rushing yards on 16 carries, 5 of 6 targets for 22 yards, 1 touchdown, 72 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs HOU: 11.2 points (RB19 that week), 80 rushing yards on 20 carries, 3 of 5 targets for 2 yards, 70 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs PIT: 8.9 points (RB33 that week), 61 rushing yards on 13 carries, 2 of 2 targets for 8 yards, 70 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs JAX: 19.1 points (RB13 that week), 10 rushing yards on 9 carries, 11 of 11 targets for 71 yards, 79 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs MIA: 7.0 points (RB35 that week), 39 rushing yards on 13 carries, 3 of 4 targets for 21 yards, 60 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs BAL: 9.8 points (RB31 that week), 39 rushing yards on 11 carries, 4 of 5 targets for 19 yards, 75 percent of snaps.

Justin Jefferson has scored 72.1 PPR points in 5 games, 14.4 a game, 1.0 a game less than the 15.4 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR21 with 201.5 PPR points in 17 games, 11.9 a game.

Week 1 vs GB: 31.2 points (WR3 that week), 8 of 9 targets for 92 yards, 2 touchdowns, 92 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs CHI: 8.5 points (WR43 that week), 3 of 6 targets for 55 yards, 100 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs TB: 5.2 points (WR73 that week), 2 of 2 targets for 32 yards, 12 percent of snaps.

Week 5 vs NO: 18.8 points (WR14 that week), -11 rushing yards on 1 carry, 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards, 1 touchdown, 89 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs IND: 8.4 points (WR32 that week), 4 of 7 targets for 44 yards, 93 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 7, Chase Brown has averaged 13.7 carries for 48 yards and 5-6 targets and 4.7 catches for 24 yards a game on 71 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 16 times inside the 20, 27 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 1 touchdown in 6 games.

In Week 7 against BAL he had 11 carries and 5 targets on 75 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 7, Justin Jefferson has averaged 6.2 targets and 4.6 catches for 60 yards a game on 77 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 5 times inside the 20, 16 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 3 touchdowns in 5 games.

In Week 7 against IND he had 7 targets on 93 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 8 through Week 17. Chase Brown has 10 games in it with no bye left; Justin Jefferson has 10 games with no bye left.

TEN, Brown's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 22.0 PPR points a game to RBs this season over 7 games, the 14th most to RBs of 32.

DET, Jefferson's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 39.2 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd most to WRs of 32.

What would even it

The side getting Justin Jefferson would want about 11 more added to make it even: a player like Isaiah Likely, valued at 10. Two players for Brown also costs that side a roster spot.

Isaiah Likely's player page

Other trades for Chase Brown and Justin Jefferson

The full Week 8 trade value chart

Week 8 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade Chase Brown for Justin Jefferson?

    No on value: Chase Brown is worth 74 and Justin Jefferson 63, a loss of 11. It can still help a lineup that needs a receiver more than it needs Brown.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, Chase Brown or Justin Jefferson?

    Chase Brown, 74 to 63. He rates 15.7 market points a game over 10 games left, against 15.4 over 10 for Justin Jefferson, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 8 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 29, 2026 at 2:51 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number