Aaron Nesmith vs Daniel Gafford: who to start in Week 1
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Daniel Gafford 3. For that week alone, start Daniel Gafford: 71.1 projected fantasy points to 70.6 for Aaron Nesmith. Over the season, Daniel Gafford leads in both formats: 23.7 fantasy points a game to 23.5, and 131st against 189th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 23, 9:47 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #151
- 23.5 FP/G, slot 13.07, $2
- 9-cat leagues
- #189
- -3.5 z, slot 16.09
- Points leagues
- #150
- 23.7 FP/G, slot 13.06, $2
- 9-cat leagues
- #131
- -2.1 z, slot 11.11, $4
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Daniel Gafford. 23.7 fantasy points per game against 23.5, 150th on our board to 151st.
9-cat leagues: Daniel Gafford again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -3.5 (131st to 189th).
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Daniel Gafford in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Daniel Gafford produces more: 39.2 fantasy points to 28.5, on 21.7 minutes a night against 29.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Daniel Gafford 3. For that week alone, start Daniel Gafford: 71.1 projected fantasy points to 70.6 for Aaron Nesmith.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Nesmith | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 23.5 | 23.7 |
| Minutes | 29.7 | 21.7 |
| PointsPTS | 13.8 | 9.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 6.6 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Threes3PM | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.4% | 64.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.9% | 66.8% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 55 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Nesmith | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 28.5 | 39.2 |
| Points | 16.7 | 15.0 |
| Rebounds | 5.0 | 11.0 |
| Assists | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Threes | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Nesmith | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | +0.4 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.3 | +1.3 |
| Threes3PM | +0.7 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | +1.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.2 | -1.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Total | -3.5 | -2.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Aaron Nesmith.
| Punt | Aaron Nesmith | Daniel Gafford |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.1 (#221) | -0.8 (#99) |
| REB | -2.8 (#182) | -2.9 (#184) |
| AST | -2.7 (#186) | -0.8 (#90) |
| STL | -2.3 (#157) | -1.5 (#117) |
| BLK | -3.3 (#184) | -3.7 (#213) |
| 3PM | -4.2 (#238) | -0.4 (#71) |
| FG% | -2.1 (#126) | -4.3 (#223) |
| FT% | -3.8 (#215) | -0.8 (#87) |
| TO | -4.2 (#179) | -3.2 (#143) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 393 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Aaron Nesmith: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN).
- Daniel Gafford: 3 games (Wed @HOU, Fri @IND, Sat SAS), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Aaron Nesmith: 23.7 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 23.5 on the board.
- Daniel Gafford: 12.2 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 23.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Nesmith playing tonight? · Is Daniel Gafford playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Nesmith or Daniel Gafford?
Points leagues: Daniel Gafford. 23.7 fantasy points per game against 23.5, 150th on our board to 151st. 9-cat leagues: Daniel Gafford again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -3.5 (131st to 189th).
Who wins more categories, Aaron Nesmith or Daniel Gafford?
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Daniel Gafford in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Aaron Nesmith or Daniel Gafford?
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Daniel Gafford 3. For that week alone, start Daniel Gafford: 71.1 projected fantasy points to 70.6 for Aaron Nesmith.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 23, 2026 at 9:47 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number