Aaron Nesmith vs Paul Reed: who to start in Week 3
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Paul Reed: 66.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Aaron Nesmith. Over the season, Paul Reed leads in both formats: 22.1 fantasy points a game to 22.0, and 144th against 219th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 12:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #184
- 22.0 FP/G, slot 16.04
- 9-cat leagues
- #219
- -4.0 z, slot 19.03
Out (Rest)
- Points leagues
- #182
- 22.1 FP/G, slot 16.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #144
- -2.3 z, slot 12.12, $2
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Paul Reed. 22.1 fantasy points per game against 22.0, 182nd on our board to 184th.
9-cat leagues: Paul Reed again, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (144th to 219th).
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Paul Reed in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Paul Reed produces more: 45.3 fantasy points to 28.6, on 17.6 minutes a night against 27.8. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Paul Reed: 66.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Aaron Nesmith.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Nesmith | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.0 | 22.1 |
| Minutes | 27.8 | 17.6 |
| PointsPTS | 13.3 | 9.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.6 | 5.2 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Threes3PM | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 40.9% | 62.2% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.2% | 69.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 65 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Nesmith | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 28.6 | 45.3 |
| Points | 17.3 | 19.4 |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 10.7 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.9 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Threes | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 2.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Nesmith | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | -0.3 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.5 | +0.3 |
| Threes3PM | +0.5 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.2 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.4 | -0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Total | -4.0 | -2.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Aaron Nesmith.
| Punt | Aaron Nesmith | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.4 (#251) | -1.0 (#111) |
| REB | -3.1 (#199) | -2.3 (#153) |
| AST | -3.2 (#206) | -1.2 (#111) |
| STL | -2.9 (#182) | -2.2 (#153) |
| BLK | -3.7 (#203) | -2.9 (#167) |
| 3PM | -4.5 (#267) | -0.9 (#87) |
| FG% | -2.9 (#160) | -4.1 (#212) |
| FT% | -4.4 (#241) | -1.6 (#125) |
| TO | -4.7 (#207) | -3.5 (#158) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 432 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Aaron Nesmith: 3 games (Mon ATL, Wed @MEM, Sat DEN), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
- Paul Reed: 3 games (Mon @CHA, Wed PHI, Sun LAL).
Recent games
- Aaron Nesmith: 18.3 fantasy points a game over his last 6 of 2026-27, against 22.0 on the board.
- Paul Reed: 29.7 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 22.1 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Nesmith playing tonight? · Is Paul Reed playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Nesmith or Paul Reed?
Points leagues: Paul Reed. 22.1 fantasy points per game against 22.0, 182nd on our board to 184th. 9-cat leagues: Paul Reed again, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (144th to 219th).
Who wins more categories, Aaron Nesmith or Paul Reed?
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%) and Paul Reed in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 3, Aaron Nesmith or Paul Reed?
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Paul Reed: 66.3 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Aaron Nesmith.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 12:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number