Ace Bailey vs Deandre Ayton: who to start in Week 2
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Deandre Ayton 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 75.7 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Deandre Ayton. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in points leagues (25.2 fantasy points a game to 25.0) and Deandre Ayton in 9-cat leagues (102nd against 161st). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 26, 2:30 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #132
- 25.2 FP/G, slot 11.12, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #161
- -2.6 z, slot 14.05
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #134
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #102
- -1.3 z, slot 9.06, $8
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.2 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 132nd on our board to 134th.
9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton instead, -1.3 in summed z-scores against -2.6 (102nd to 161st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Deandre Ayton in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Deandre Ayton produces more: 35.7 fantasy points to 33.4, on 25.2 minutes a night against 27.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Deandre Ayton 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 75.7 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Deandre Ayton.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.2 | 25.0 |
| Minutes | 27.2 | 25.2 |
| PointsPTS | 13.4 | 11.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 7.5 |
| AssistsAST | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.1% | 68.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 72.5% | 63.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.4 | 35.7 |
| Points | 17.8 | 16.5 |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 10.7 |
| Assists | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Threes | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | +0.8 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | -1.4 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | -1.7 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.7 | +2.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -0.9 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +1.1 |
| Total | -2.6 | -1.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Deandre Ayton |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.2 (#174) | -0.5 (#82) |
| REB | -2.4 (#157) | -2.4 (#158) |
| AST | -1.9 (#147) | +0.1 (#50) |
| STL | -1.8 (#135) | -0.0 (#61) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#170) | -2.1 (#138) |
| 3PM | -2.9 (#181) | +0.4 (#47) |
| FG% | -2.1 (#126) | -4.4 (#226) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#157) | -0.4 (#71) |
| TO | -3.2 (#147) | -2.5 (#124) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Mon MEM, Wed SAS, Sat POR), 1 back-to-back.
- Deandre Ayton: 3 games (Mon @CHA, Wed @CLE, Fri CHA).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 28.4 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 25.2 on the board.
- Deandre Ayton: 16.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Deandre Ayton playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Deandre Ayton?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.2 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 132nd on our board to 134th. 9-cat leagues: Deandre Ayton instead, -1.3 in summed z-scores against -2.6 (102nd to 161st), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Deandre Ayton?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Deandre Ayton in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 2, Ace Bailey or Deandre Ayton?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Deandre Ayton 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 75.7 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Deandre Ayton.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 26, 2026 at 2:30 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number