Ace Bailey vs Jalen Green: who to start in Week 3
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Jalen Green 4. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 103.7 for Jalen Green. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in both formats: 26.3 fantasy points a game to 25.9, and 137th against 231st in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 12:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #134
- 26.3 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #137
- -2.1 z, slot 12.05, $3
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #137
- 25.9 FP/G, slot 12.05, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #231
- -4.5 z, slot 20.03
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 26.3 fantasy points per game against 25.9, 134th on our board to 137th.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -4.5 (137th to 231st).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Jalen Green in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, Jalen Green produces more: 35.9 fantasy points to 33.2, on 26.0 minutes a night against 28.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Jalen Green 4. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 103.7 for Jalen Green.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Jalen Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 26.3 | 25.9 |
| Minutes | 28.5 | 26.0 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 16.3 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.8% | 42.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 75.3% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 32 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Jalen Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.2 | 35.9 |
| Points | 17.2 | 22.6 |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 4.7 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 3.8 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 3.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Jalen Green |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.3 | -1.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.5 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.6 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | -1.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -0.3 |
| Total | -2.1 | -4.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Ace Bailey stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Jalen Green |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#142) | -4.5 (#317) |
| REB | -1.9 (#133) | -3.5 (#220) |
| AST | -1.2 (#115) | -4.2 (#257) |
| STL | -1.2 (#105) | -4.1 (#259) |
| BLK | -2.9 (#172) | -3.9 (#211) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#161) | -4.8 (#294) |
| FG% | -1.8 (#118) | -3.4 (#179) |
| FT% | -2.0 (#144) | -4.2 (#229) |
| TO | -2.7 (#133) | -4.3 (#182) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 432 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Ace Bailey: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
- Jalen Green: 4 games (Mon @GSW, Wed POR, Thu ORL, Sat HOU), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 28.9 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 26.3 on the board.
- Jalen Green: 19.0 fantasy points a game over his last 5 of 2026-27, against 25.9 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Jalen Green playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Jalen Green
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Jalen Green?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 26.3 fantasy points per game against 25.9, 134th on our board to 137th. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.1 in summed z-scores against -4.5 (137th to 231st).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Jalen Green?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Jalen Green in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 3, Ace Bailey or Jalen Green?
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Jalen Green 4. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 105.3 projected fantasy points to 103.7 for Jalen Green.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 12:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number