Jalen Green vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 2
Jalen Green plays 2 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Marvin Bagley III 3. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 60.6 projected fantasy points to 54.2 for Jalen Green. Over the season, Jalen Green leads in both formats: 27.1 fantasy points a game to 20.2, and 208th against 209th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 27, 8:32 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #111
- 27.1 FP/G, slot 10.03, $7
- 9-cat leagues
- #208
- -4.0 z, slot 18.04
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #198
- 20.2 FP/G, slot 17.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #209
- -4.1 z, slot 18.05
The call
Points leagues: Jalen Green. 27.1 fantasy points per game against 20.2, 111th on our board to 198th.
9-cat leagues: Jalen Green again, -4.0 in summed z-scores against -4.1 (208th to 209th).
Category by category, Jalen Green is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 37.3, on 18.4 minutes a night against 26.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Jalen Green plays 2 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Marvin Bagley III 3. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 60.6 projected fantasy points to 54.2 for Jalen Green.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Jalen Green | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 27.1 | 20.2 |
| Minutes | 26.1 | 18.4 |
| PointsPTS | 17.1 | 9.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| AssistsAST | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.0% | 61.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.3% | 66.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 32 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Jalen Green | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 37.3 | 39.5 |
| Points | 23.6 | 18.6 |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 10.9 |
| Assists | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| Steals | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Threes | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 3.0 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Jalen Green | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | -1.2 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.0 | -0.0 |
| AssistsAST | -0.4 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -0.2 | -1.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.7 | -0.0 |
| Threes3PM | +0.4 | -1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | +1.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.4 | -1.1 |
| TurnoversTO | -0.4 | +1.1 |
| Total | -4.0 | -4.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Jalen Green | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -4.2 (#287) | -2.8 (#205) |
| REB | -3.2 (#195) | -4.3 (#260) |
| AST | -3.7 (#230) | -2.8 (#187) |
| STL | -3.8 (#230) | -2.4 (#157) |
| BLK | -3.4 (#191) | -4.3 (#236) |
| 3PM | -4.6 (#251) | -2.6 (#170) |
| FG% | -2.8 (#153) | -6.1 (#294) |
| FT% | -3.8 (#208) | -3.0 (#181) |
| TO | -3.6 (#162) | -5.3 (#220) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Jalen Green: 2 games (Mon @OKC, Fri DEN).
- Marvin Bagley III: 3 games (Mon GSW, Wed @NOP, Fri @PHX).
Recent games
- Jalen Green: 22.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 27.1 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 9.1 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 20.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Jalen Green playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Jalen Green
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Jalen Green or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Jalen Green. 27.1 fantasy points per game against 20.2, 111th on our board to 198th. 9-cat leagues: Jalen Green again, -4.0 in summed z-scores against -4.1 (208th to 209th).
Who wins more categories, Jalen Green or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Jalen Green is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 2, Jalen Green or Marvin Bagley III?
Jalen Green plays 2 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), Marvin Bagley III 3. For that week alone, start Marvin Bagley III: 60.6 projected fantasy points to 54.2 for Jalen Green.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 27, 2026 at 8:32 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number