Ace Bailey vs John Collins: who to draft in 2026-27
Draft John Collins in both formats: 24.9 fantasy points a game to 24.6 in points leagues, and 104th against 168th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 box scores, not ADP.
- Points leagues
- #142
- 24.6 FP/G, slot 12.10, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #168
- -3.0 z, slot 14.12
- Points leagues
- #140
- 24.9 FP/G, slot 12.08, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #104
- -1.4 z, slot 9.08, $8
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: draft John Collins. 24.9 fantasy points per game against 24.6, 140th on our board to 142nd.
9-cat leagues: John Collins again, -1.4 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (104th to 168th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 2 (AST and 3PM) and John Collins in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, John Collins produces more: 33.0 fantasy points to 32.1, on 27.1 minutes a night against 27.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 74.7 projected fantasy points to 73.8 for Ace Bailey.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.6 | 24.9 |
| Minutes | 27.6 | 27.1 |
| PointsPTS | 13.8 | 13.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 5.3 |
| AssistsAST | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 55.2% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 76.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 69 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.1 | 33.0 |
| Points | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 7.1 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.0 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | +1.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Total | -3.0 | -1.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.6 (#198) | -0.9 (#103) |
| REB | -2.4 (#149) | -1.3 (#105) |
| AST | -2.2 (#151) | -0.1 (#63) |
| STL | -2.6 (#168) | -1.0 (#98) |
| BLK | -3.2 (#180) | -1.6 (#112) |
| 3PM | -3.3 (#196) | -1.0 (#96) |
| FG% | -2.3 (#130) | -2.7 (#143) |
| FT% | -2.9 (#168) | -1.2 (#104) |
| TO | -3.6 (#161) | -2.1 (#113) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 406 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- John Collins: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 31.1 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 24.6 on the board.
- John Collins: 23.9 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 24.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Common questions
Should I draft Ace Bailey or John Collins in 2026-27?
Points leagues: draft John Collins. 24.9 fantasy points per game against 24.6, 140th on our board to 142nd. 9-cat leagues: John Collins again, -1.4 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (104th to 168th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or John Collins?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 2 (AST and 3PM) and John Collins in 5 (REB, STL, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or John Collins?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 74.7 projected fantasy points to 73.8 for Ace Bailey.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 13, 2026 at 5:20 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number