Ace Bailey vs Reed Sheppard: who to start in Week 3
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Reed Sheppard 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 103.9 projected fantasy points to 76.9 for Reed Sheppard. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in points leagues (26.0 fantasy points a game to 25.6) and Reed Sheppard in 9-cat leagues (81st against 149th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Nov 3, 2:36 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #136
- 26.0 FP/G, slot 12.04, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #149
- -2.3 z, slot 13.05, $2
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #138
- 25.6 FP/G, slot 12.06, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #81
- -0.9 z, slot 7.09, $10
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 26.0 fantasy points per game against 25.6, 136th on our board to 138th.
9-cat leagues: Reed Sheppard instead, -0.9 in summed z-scores against -2.3 (81st to 149th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and FG%) and Reed Sheppard in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Reed Sheppard produces more: 36.7 fantasy points to 32.9, on 25.1 minutes a night against 28.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Reed Sheppard 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 103.9 projected fantasy points to 76.9 for Reed Sheppard.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Reed Sheppard |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 26.0 | 25.6 |
| Minutes | 28.4 | 25.1 |
| PointsPTS | 13.3 | 12.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.3 | 2.8 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.7% | 42.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 83.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Reed Sheppard |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.9 | 36.7 |
| Points | 16.8 | 18.1 |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 4.0 |
| Assists | 2.4 | 5.1 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Blocks | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Threes | 2.2 | 3.8 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 2.2 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Reed Sheppard |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.2 | -1.3 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.9 | +1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.6 | -0.4 |
| Threes3PM | +0.1 | +1.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Total | -2.3 | -0.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Reed Sheppard |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.7 (#158) | -0.3 (#75) |
| REB | -2.2 (#146) | +0.4 (#46) |
| AST | -1.5 (#120) | -1.0 (#94) |
| STL | -1.4 (#115) | -2.0 (#151) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#174) | -0.6 (#80) |
| 3PM | -2.4 (#165) | -2.0 (#143) |
| FG% | -1.8 (#117) | +0.2 (#54) |
| FT% | -2.2 (#154) | -1.1 (#98) |
| TO | -3.0 (#141) | -1.5 (#99) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 438 ranked players.
Week 3 (Nov 2-8)
- Ace Bailey: 4 games (Mon @SAS, Wed @NOP, Fri @DAL, Sun @MIN).
- Reed Sheppard: 3 games (Mon BOS, Wed MIN, Sat @PHX).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 28.9 fantasy points a game over his last 7 of 2026-27, against 26.0 on the board.
- Reed Sheppard: 21.5 fantasy points a game over his last 5 of 2026-27, against 25.6 on the board.
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Reed Sheppard playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Reed Sheppard
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Reed Sheppard?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 26.0 fantasy points per game against 25.6, 136th on our board to 138th. 9-cat leagues: Reed Sheppard instead, -0.9 in summed z-scores against -2.3 (81st to 149th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Reed Sheppard?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, BLK and FG%) and Reed Sheppard in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 3, Ace Bailey or Reed Sheppard?
Ace Bailey plays 4 games in Week 3 (Nov 2-8), Reed Sheppard 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 103.9 projected fantasy points to 76.9 for Reed Sheppard.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Nov 3, 2026 at 2:36 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number