Ace Bailey vs Kelly Oubre Jr.: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Kelly Oubre Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Kelly Oubre Jr.: 75.5 projected fantasy points to 73.4 for Ace Bailey. Over the season, Kelly Oubre Jr. leads in both formats: 25.2 fantasy points a game to 24.5, and 126th against 174th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 8:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #140
- 24.5 FP/G, slot 12.08, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #174
- -3.1 z, slot 15.06
- Points leagues
- #131
- 25.2 FP/G, slot 11.11, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #126
- -2.0 z, slot 11.06, $4
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Kelly Oubre Jr.. 25.2 fantasy points per game against 24.5, 131st on our board to 140th.
9-cat leagues: Kelly Oubre Jr. again, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (126th to 174th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, BLK and 3PM) and Kelly Oubre Jr. in 4 (REB, STL, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Ace Bailey produces more: 32.5 fantasy points to 29.7, on 27.1 minutes a night against 30.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Kelly Oubre Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Kelly Oubre Jr.: 75.5 projected fantasy points to 73.4 for Ace Bailey.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.5 | 25.2 |
| Minutes | 27.1 | 30.5 |
| PointsPTS | 13.2 | 12.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.6% | 44.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 72.5% | 76.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 50 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.5 | 29.7 |
| Points | 17.6 | 15.2 |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.0 |
| StealsSTL | -0.8 | +0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.2 | -0.4 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | -0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.0 | -0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.7 |
| Total | -3.1 | -2.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals flips the 9-cat answer to Ace Bailey.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Kelly Oubre Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.6 (#198) | -1.4 (#128) |
| REB | -2.6 (#168) | -1.6 (#123) |
| AST | -2.3 (#169) | -1.1 (#103) |
| STL | -2.4 (#158) | -2.8 (#178) |
| BLK | -3.5 (#193) | -1.7 (#121) |
| 3PM | -3.4 (#198) | -1.9 (#134) |
| FG% | -2.2 (#133) | -1.5 (#99) |
| FT% | -2.8 (#171) | -1.7 (#129) |
| TO | -3.7 (#165) | -2.8 (#132) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN).
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 24.5 on the board.
- Kelly Oubre Jr.: 13.6 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Kelly Oubre Jr. playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Kelly Oubre Jr.?
Points leagues: Kelly Oubre Jr.. 25.2 fantasy points per game against 24.5, 131st on our board to 140th. 9-cat leagues: Kelly Oubre Jr. again, -2.0 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (126th to 174th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Kelly Oubre Jr.?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, BLK and 3PM) and Kelly Oubre Jr. in 4 (REB, STL, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Kelly Oubre Jr.?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Kelly Oubre Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Kelly Oubre Jr.: 75.5 projected fantasy points to 73.4 for Ace Bailey.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 8:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number