Ace Bailey vs Draymond Green: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Draymond Green 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 74.7 for Draymond Green. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in both formats: 25.0 fantasy points a game to 24.9, and 159th against 192nd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
Parlae may earn a commission from price links.
- Points leagues
- #135
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.03, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #159
- -2.7 z, slot 14.03
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #137
- 24.9 FP/G, slot 12.05, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #192
- -3.6 z, slot 16.12
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 24.9, 135th on our board to 137th.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (159th to 192nd).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Draymond Green in 3 (REB, AST and STL).
Per 36 minutes, Draymond Green produces more: 33.1 fantasy points to 32.8, on 27.1 minutes a night against 27.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Draymond Green 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 74.7 for Draymond Green.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Advertisement
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Draymond Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 24.9 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 27.1 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 8.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 5.7 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 41.2% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 70.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 68 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Draymond Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.8 | 33.1 |
| Points | 18.0 | 10.6 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 7.2 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 7.6 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 3.6 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
Advertisement
9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Draymond Green |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -1.5 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | +1.0 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -1.1 |
| Total | -2.7 | -3.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Draymond Green.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Draymond Green |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#179) | -2.2 (#172) |
| REB | -2.1 (#138) | -3.6 (#232) |
| AST | -1.9 (#147) | -4.7 (#276) |
| STL | -2.1 (#147) | -3.3 (#200) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#177) | -3.7 (#213) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#185) | -3.3 (#200) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#117) | -3.0 (#158) |
| FT% | -2.6 (#158) | -3.2 (#181) |
| TO | -3.3 (#146) | -2.6 (#126) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Draymond Green: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 30.5 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Draymond Green: 20.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 24.9 on the board.
Advertisement
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Draymond Green playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Draymond Green
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Draymond Green?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 24.9, 135th on our board to 137th. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (159th to 192nd).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Draymond Green?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Draymond Green in 3 (REB, AST and STL).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Draymond Green?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Draymond Green 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 74.7 for Draymond Green.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number