Ace Bailey vs Jeremiah Fears: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jeremiah Fears 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 73.2 for Jeremiah Fears. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in both formats: 25.0 fantasy points a game to 24.4, and 162nd against 236th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 2:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
Parlae may earn a commission from price links.
- Points leagues
- #135
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.03, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #162
- -2.7 z, slot 14.06
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #143
- 24.4 FP/G, slot 12.11, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #236
- -4.5 z, slot 20.08
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 24.4, 135th on our board to 143rd.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -4.5 (162nd to 236th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Jeremiah Fears in 3 (AST, STL and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Jeremiah Fears produces more: 34.6 fantasy points to 32.8, on 25.4 minutes a night against 27.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jeremiah Fears 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 73.2 for Jeremiah Fears.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Advertisement
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Jeremiah Fears |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 24.4 |
| Minutes | 27.4 | 25.4 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 13.5 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.3% | 41.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.0% | 78.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Jeremiah Fears |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.8 | 34.6 |
| Points | 18.0 | 19.1 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 4.4 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 3.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
Advertisement
9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Jeremiah Fears |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | -1.1 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| StealsSTL | -0.7 | +0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.3 | -0.7 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -0.5 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | -1.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | -0.3 |
| Total | -2.7 | -4.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Ace Bailey stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Jeremiah Fears |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.2 (#178) | -4.0 (#277) |
| REB | -2.0 (#134) | -3.6 (#236) |
| AST | -1.9 (#148) | -4.4 (#259) |
| STL | -2.1 (#146) | -4.8 (#284) |
| BLK | -3.1 (#174) | -4.0 (#225) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#186) | -4.1 (#232) |
| FG% | -1.9 (#114) | -3.5 (#180) |
| FT% | -2.5 (#161) | -4.4 (#236) |
| TO | -3.2 (#147) | -4.3 (#188) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Jeremiah Fears: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Jeremiah Fears: 10.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 24.4 on the board.
Advertisement
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Jeremiah Fears playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey, Jeremiah Fears
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Jeremiah Fears?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 24.4, 135th on our board to 143rd. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -2.7 in summed z-scores against -4.5 (162nd to 236th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Jeremiah Fears?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Jeremiah Fears in 3 (AST, STL and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Jeremiah Fears?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jeremiah Fears 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 74.9 projected fantasy points to 73.2 for Jeremiah Fears.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 2:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number