Ajay Mitchell vs Keegan Murray: who to start in Week 1
Ajay Mitchell plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keegan Murray 3. For that week alone, start Keegan Murray: 84.2 projected fantasy points to 77.5 for Ajay Mitchell. Over the season, Keegan Murray leads in points leagues (28.1 fantasy points a game to 25.8) and Ajay Mitchell in 9-cat leagues (101st against 103rd). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #128
- 25.8 FP/G, slot 11.08, $6
- 9-cat leagues
- #101
- -1.3 z, slot 9.05, $8
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #101
- 28.1 FP/G, slot 9.05, $9
- 9-cat leagues
- #103
- -1.3 z, slot 9.07, $8
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Keegan Murray. 28.1 fantasy points per game against 25.8, 101st on our board to 128th.
9-cat leagues: Ajay Mitchell instead, -1.3 in summed z-scores against -1.3 (101st to 103rd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Ajay Mitchell is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, FG% and FT%) and Keegan Murray in 4 (REB, BLK, 3PM and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Ajay Mitchell produces more: 36.4 fantasy points to 30.1, on 25.5 minutes a night against 33.6. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ajay Mitchell plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keegan Murray 3. For that week alone, start Keegan Murray: 84.2 projected fantasy points to 77.5 for Ajay Mitchell.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ajay Mitchell | Keegan Murray |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.8 | 28.1 |
| Minutes | 25.5 | 33.6 |
| PointsPTS | 12.9 | 13.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.2 | 5.4 |
| AssistsAST | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Threes3PM | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.2% | 41.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 87.6% | 80.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 57 | 23 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ajay Mitchell | Keegan Murray |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.4 | 30.1 |
| Points | 18.2 | 14.1 |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| Assists | 5.0 | 1.6 |
| Steals | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Threes | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Turnovers | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ajay Mitchell | Keegan Murray |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.0 | -1.0 |
| StealsSTL | +1.0 | +0.0 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.7 | +1.4 |
| Threes3PM | -0.7 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.2 | -1.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.7 | +0.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Total | -1.3 | -1.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, field goal percentage and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Keegan Murray.
| Punt | Ajay Mitchell | Keegan Murray |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.7 (#92) | -0.8 (#94) |
| REB | -0.2 (#61) | -1.3 (#109) |
| AST | -1.3 (#116) | -0.3 (#63) |
| STL | -2.4 (#156) | -1.4 (#118) |
| BLK | -0.7 (#81) | -3.0 (#170) |
| 3PM | -0.7 (#83) | -0.9 (#91) |
| FG% | -1.2 (#92) | +0.1 (#58) |
| FT% | -2.0 (#141) | -1.3 (#110) |
| TO | -1.8 (#106) | -2.3 (#119) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ajay Mitchell: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC).
- Keegan Murray: 3 games (Wed @LAC, Fri POR, Sun MEM).
Recent games
- Ajay Mitchell: 22.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.8 on the board.
- Keegan Murray: 13.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 28.1 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ajay Mitchell playing tonight? · Is Keegan Murray playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ajay Mitchell
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ajay Mitchell or Keegan Murray?
Points leagues: Keegan Murray. 28.1 fantasy points per game against 25.8, 101st on our board to 128th. 9-cat leagues: Ajay Mitchell instead, -1.3 in summed z-scores against -1.3 (101st to 103rd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Ajay Mitchell or Keegan Murray?
Category by category, Ajay Mitchell is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, FG% and FT%) and Keegan Murray in 4 (REB, BLK, 3PM and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ajay Mitchell or Keegan Murray?
Ajay Mitchell plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keegan Murray 3. For that week alone, start Keegan Murray: 84.2 projected fantasy points to 77.5 for Ajay Mitchell.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 10:27 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number