Al Horford vs Collin Sexton: who to start in Week 1
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Collin Sexton 3. For that week alone, start Collin Sexton: 73.0 projected fantasy points to 63.8 for Al Horford. Over the season, Collin Sexton leads in both formats: 24.3 fantasy points a game to 21.3, and 148th against 149th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #184
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.04
- 9-cat leagues
- #149
- -2.3 z, slot 13.05, $2
- Points leagues
- #142
- 24.3 FP/G, slot 12.10, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #148
- -2.3 z, slot 13.04, $2
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Collin Sexton. 24.3 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 142nd on our board to 184th.
9-cat leagues: Collin Sexton again, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.3 (148th to 149th).
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and TO) and Collin Sexton in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FG% and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Collin Sexton produces more: 37.7 fantasy points to 36.1, on 23.3 minutes a night against 21.2. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Collin Sexton 3. For that week alone, start Collin Sexton: 73.0 projected fantasy points to 63.8 for Al Horford.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Al Horford | Collin Sexton |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.3 | 24.3 |
| Minutes | 21.2 | 23.3 |
| PointsPTS | 7.5 | 14.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| AssistsAST | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.2% | 48.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.6% | 85.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 68 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Al Horford | Collin Sexton |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.1 | 37.7 |
| Points | 12.7 | 22.9 |
| Rebounds | 8.2 | 3.4 |
| Assists | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Blocks | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 3.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Al Horford | Collin Sexton |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | -1.6 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | +0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.9 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | +0.7 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | -0.2 |
| Total | -2.3 | -2.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, steals, threes, field goal percentage and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Al Horford.
| Punt | Al Horford | Collin Sexton |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.8 (#97) | -2.0 (#169) |
| REB | -2.0 (#132) | -0.7 (#82) |
| AST | -1.7 (#137) | -2.1 (#157) |
| STL | -1.4 (#116) | -2.9 (#182) |
| BLK | -3.5 (#195) | -1.2 (#98) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#147) | -2.4 (#156) |
| FG% | -1.6 (#105) | -2.3 (#135) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#152) | -3.0 (#179) |
| TO | -3.7 (#164) | -2.2 (#116) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Al Horford: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back.
- Collin Sexton: 3 games (Wed GSW, Fri LAC, Sun @UTA).
Recent games
- Al Horford: 12.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
- Collin Sexton: 17.2 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 24.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Al Horford playing tonight? · Is Collin Sexton playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Al Horford or Collin Sexton?
Points leagues: Collin Sexton. 24.3 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 142nd on our board to 184th. 9-cat leagues: Collin Sexton again, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.3 (148th to 149th).
Who wins more categories, Al Horford or Collin Sexton?
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and TO) and Collin Sexton in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FG% and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Al Horford or Collin Sexton?
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Collin Sexton 3. For that week alone, start Collin Sexton: 73.0 projected fantasy points to 63.8 for Al Horford.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 10:27 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number