Al Horford vs Davion Mitchell: who to start in Week 1
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Davion Mitchell 3. For that week alone, start Davion Mitchell: 76.5 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Al Horford. Over the season, Davion Mitchell leads in points leagues (25.5 fantasy points a game to 21.3) and Al Horford in 9-cat leagues (149th against 150th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #185
- 21.3 FP/G, slot 16.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #149
- -2.3 z, slot 13.05, $2
Out (Back)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #128
- 25.5 FP/G, slot 11.08, $5
- 9-cat leagues
- #150
- -2.4 z, slot 13.06, $2
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Davion Mitchell. 25.5 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 128th on our board to 185th.
9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (149th to 150th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Davion Mitchell in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FG%).
Per 36 minutes, Al Horford produces more: 36.1 fantasy points to 31.1, on 21.2 minutes a night against 29.5. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Davion Mitchell 3. For that week alone, start Davion Mitchell: 76.5 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Al Horford.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Al Horford | Davion Mitchell |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.3 | 25.5 |
| Minutes | 21.2 | 29.5 |
| PointsPTS | 7.5 | 10.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.8 | 2.4 |
| AssistsAST | 2.4 | 6.8 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.2% | 49.5% |
| Free throw %FT% | 84.6% | 71.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 70 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Al Horford | Davion Mitchell |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.1 | 31.1 |
| Points | 12.7 | 12.9 |
| Rebounds | 8.2 | 2.9 |
| Assists | 4.1 | 8.3 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 2.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Al Horford | Davion Mitchell |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -1.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.4 | -1.5 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | +1.6 |
| StealsSTL | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.9 | -0.8 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | -0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.8 | +0.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -0.4 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.2 | +0.2 |
| Total | -2.3 | -2.4 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Davion Mitchell.
| Punt | Al Horford | Davion Mitchell |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.8 (#98) | -1.4 (#131) |
| REB | -2.1 (#139) | -1.0 (#90) |
| AST | -1.7 (#134) | -4.1 (#247) |
| STL | -1.4 (#117) | -2.0 (#145) |
| BLK | -3.5 (#195) | -1.7 (#115) |
| 3PM | -2.2 (#149) | -2.3 (#154) |
| FG% | -1.6 (#107) | -2.8 (#150) |
| FT% | -2.4 (#152) | -2.0 (#144) |
| TO | -3.7 (#166) | -2.6 (#131) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Al Horford: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
- Davion Mitchell: 3 games (Wed MIN, Fri DET, Sat @CHA), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Al Horford: 12.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 21.3 on the board.
- Davion Mitchell: 32.5 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 25.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Al Horford playing tonight? · Is Davion Mitchell playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Al Horford or Davion Mitchell?
Points leagues: Davion Mitchell. 25.5 fantasy points per game against 21.3, 128th on our board to 185th. 9-cat leagues: Al Horford instead, -2.3 in summed z-scores against -2.4 (149th to 150th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Al Horford or Davion Mitchell?
Category by category, Al Horford is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, 3PM, FT% and TO) and Davion Mitchell in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and FG%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Al Horford or Davion Mitchell?
Al Horford plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Davion Mitchell 3. For that week alone, start Davion Mitchell: 76.5 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Al Horford.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number