Brook Lopez vs Bub Carrington: who to start in Week 1
Brook Lopez plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bub Carrington 3. For that week alone, start Brook Lopez: 63.2 projected fantasy points to 62.7 for Bub Carrington. Over the season, Brook Lopez leads in both formats: 21.1 fantasy points a game to 20.9, and 145th against 254th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 4:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #190
- 21.1 FP/G, slot 16.10
- 9-cat leagues
- #145
- -2.2 z, slot 13.01, $2
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #192
- 20.9 FP/G, slot 16.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #254
- -4.9 z, slot 22.02
The call
Points leagues: Brook Lopez. 21.1 fantasy points per game against 20.9, 190th on our board to 192nd.
9-cat leagues: Brook Lopez again, -2.2 in summed z-scores against -4.9 (145th to 254th).
Category by category, Brook Lopez is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Bub Carrington in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, Brook Lopez produces more: 34.5 fantasy points to 28.7, on 22.0 minutes a night against 26.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Brook Lopez plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bub Carrington 3. For that week alone, start Brook Lopez: 63.2 projected fantasy points to 62.7 for Bub Carrington.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Brook Lopez | Bub Carrington |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 21.1 | 20.9 |
| Minutes | 22.0 | 26.2 |
| PointsPTS | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| AssistsAST | 1.2 | 4.3 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.3 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 47.4% | 42.2% |
| Free throw %FT% | 78.9% | 75.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 75 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Brook Lopez | Bub Carrington |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 34.5 | 28.7 |
| Points | 16.0 | 14.0 |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 4.2 |
| Assists | 2.0 | 6.0 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 2.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Brook Lopez | Bub Carrington |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.8 | -1.2 |
| AssistsAST | -1.2 | +0.4 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | -0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | +1.2 | -1.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.1 | +0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.1 | -0.9 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.0 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | -0.3 |
| Total | -2.2 | -4.9 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Brook Lopez stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Brook Lopez | Bub Carrington |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.1 (#115) | -3.8 (#262) |
| REB | -1.6 (#123) | -3.8 (#242) |
| AST | -1.1 (#106) | -5.3 (#301) |
| STL | -1.2 (#106) | -4.0 (#238) |
| BLK | -3.7 (#207) | -4.0 (#228) |
| 3PM | -2.1 (#145) | -5.3 (#291) |
| FG% | -2.2 (#134) | -4.2 (#209) |
| FT% | -2.2 (#147) | -4.7 (#249) |
| TO | -3.5 (#157) | -4.7 (#196) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Brook Lopez: 3 games (Wed SAC, Fri @LAL, Sun @OKC).
- Bub Carrington: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Brook Lopez: 34.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 21.1 on the board.
- Bub Carrington: 13.2 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.9 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Brook Lopez playing tonight? · Is Bub Carrington playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Brook Lopez or Bub Carrington?
Points leagues: Brook Lopez. 21.1 fantasy points per game against 20.9, 190th on our board to 192nd. 9-cat leagues: Brook Lopez again, -2.2 in summed z-scores against -4.9 (145th to 254th).
Who wins more categories, Brook Lopez or Bub Carrington?
Category by category, Brook Lopez is ahead in 5 (REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO) and Bub Carrington in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 1, Brook Lopez or Bub Carrington?
Brook Lopez plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Bub Carrington 3. For that week alone, start Brook Lopez: 63.2 projected fantasy points to 62.7 for Bub Carrington.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 4:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number