Chet Holmgren vs Dyson Daniels: who to start in Week 1
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Dyson Daniels 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 110.9 projected fantasy points to 107.3 for Dyson Daniels. Over the season, Chet Holmgren leads in both formats: 37.0 fantasy points a game to 35.8, and 10th against 28th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #41
- 37.0 FP/G, slot 4.05, $22
- 9-cat leagues
- #10
- +3.9 z, slot 1.10, $38
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #42
- 35.8 FP/G, slot 4.06, $20
- 9-cat leagues
- #28
- +2.3 z, slot 3.04, $29
The call
Points leagues: Chet Holmgren. 37.0 fantasy points per game against 35.8, 41st on our board to 42nd.
9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren again, +3.9 in summed z-scores against +2.3 (10th to 28th).
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 7 (PTS, REB, BLK, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO) and Dyson Daniels in 2 (AST and STL).
Per 36 minutes, Chet Holmgren produces more: 46.0 fantasy points to 39.4, on 28.9 minutes a night against 32.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Dyson Daniels 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 110.9 projected fantasy points to 107.3 for Dyson Daniels.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | Dyson Daniels |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 37.0 | 35.8 |
| Minutes | 28.9 | 32.7 |
| PointsPTS | 16.6 | 12.3 |
| ReboundsREB | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| AssistsAST | 1.7 | 5.6 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 2.1 | 0.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 54.9% | 52.4% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.1% | 59.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 76 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | Dyson Daniels |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 46.0 | 39.4 |
| Points | 20.7 | 13.5 |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 7.5 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 6.2 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 2.7 |
| Blocks | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | Dyson Daniels |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | -0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.6 | +0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | +1.0 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | +3.8 |
| BlocksBLK | +3.0 | -0.6 |
| Threes3PM | -0.5 | -1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.1 | +0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.3 | -1.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Total | +3.9 | +2.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks flips the 9-cat answer to Dyson Daniels.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | Dyson Daniels |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +3.8 (#6) | +2.9 (#8) |
| REB | +2.2 (#22) | +1.7 (#28) |
| AST | +4.8 (#6) | +1.2 (#33) |
| STL | +4.9 (#4) | -1.5 (#122) |
| BLK | +0.7 (#45) | +2.7 (#21) |
| 3PM | +4.4 (#7) | +3.6 (#11) |
| FG% | +2.6 (#24) | +1.0 (#40) |
| FT% | +3.6 (#10) | +3.5 (#11) |
| TO | +3.5 (#19) | +2.0 (#37) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC).
- Dyson Daniels: 3 games (Wed @ORL, Fri @CHA, Sat HOU), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 41.9 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 37.0 on the board.
- Dyson Daniels: 47.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 35.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Chet Holmgren playing tonight? · Is Dyson Daniels playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Chet Holmgren
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Chet Holmgren or Dyson Daniels?
Points leagues: Chet Holmgren. 37.0 fantasy points per game against 35.8, 41st on our board to 42nd. 9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren again, +3.9 in summed z-scores against +2.3 (10th to 28th).
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or Dyson Daniels?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 7 (PTS, REB, BLK, 3PM, FG%, FT% and TO) and Dyson Daniels in 2 (AST and STL).
Who should I start in Week 1, Chet Holmgren or Dyson Daniels?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Dyson Daniels 3. For that week alone, start Chet Holmgren: 110.9 projected fantasy points to 107.3 for Dyson Daniels.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 10:27 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number