Chet Holmgren vs Lauri Markkanen: who to start in Week 1
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Lauri Markkanen 3. For that week alone, start Lauri Markkanen: 120.1 projected fantasy points to 110.9 for Chet Holmgren. Over the season, Lauri Markkanen leads in points leagues (40.0 fantasy points a game to 37.0) and Chet Holmgren in 9-cat leagues (10th against 11th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 8:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #41
- 37.0 FP/G, slot 4.05, $22
- 9-cat leagues
- #10
- +3.9 z, slot 1.10, $38
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #25
- 40.0 FP/G, slot 3.01, $27
- 9-cat leagues
- #11
- +3.8 z, slot 1.11, $37
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Lauri Markkanen. 40.0 fantasy points per game against 37.0, 25th on our board to 41st.
9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren instead, +3.9 in summed z-scores against +3.8 (10th to 11th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Lauri Markkanen in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Chet Holmgren produces more: 46.0 fantasy points to 41.9, on 28.9 minutes a night against 34.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Lauri Markkanen 3. For that week alone, start Lauri Markkanen: 120.1 projected fantasy points to 110.9 for Chet Holmgren.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | Lauri Markkanen |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 37.0 | 40.0 |
| Minutes | 28.9 | 34.4 |
| PointsPTS | 16.6 | 25.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 9.3 | 7.0 |
| AssistsAST | 1.7 | 2.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| BlocksBLK | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 54.9% | 46.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.1% | 89.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 42 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | Lauri Markkanen |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 46.0 | 41.9 |
| Points | 20.7 | 26.8 |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 7.3 |
| Assists | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Turnovers | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | Lauri Markkanen |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.1 | +1.6 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.6 | +0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | -0.7 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| BlocksBLK | +3.0 | -0.4 |
| Threes3PM | -0.5 | +1.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.1 | -0.5 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.3 | +2.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.3 | +0.4 |
| Total | +3.9 | +3.8 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Lauri Markkanen.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | Lauri Markkanen |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +3.8 (#6) | +2.1 (#17) |
| REB | +2.2 (#22) | +3.4 (#14) |
| AST | +4.8 (#6) | +4.4 (#7) |
| STL | +4.9 (#4) | +4.0 (#8) |
| BLK | +0.7 (#45) | +4.2 (#8) |
| 3PM | +4.4 (#7) | +2.5 (#21) |
| FG% | +2.6 (#24) | +4.8 (#9) |
| FT% | +3.6 (#10) | +1.7 (#28) |
| TO | +3.5 (#19) | +3.5 (#20) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Tue @SAS, Thu DEN, Sun LAC).
- Lauri Markkanen: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 41.9 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 37.0 on the board.
- Lauri Markkanen: 31.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 40.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Chet Holmgren playing tonight? · Is Lauri Markkanen playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Chet Holmgren
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Chet Holmgren or Lauri Markkanen?
Points leagues: Lauri Markkanen. 40.0 fantasy points per game against 37.0, 25th on our board to 41st. 9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren instead, +3.9 in summed z-scores against +3.8 (10th to 11th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or Lauri Markkanen?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 3 (REB, BLK and FG%) and Lauri Markkanen in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Chet Holmgren or Lauri Markkanen?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Lauri Markkanen 3. For that week alone, start Lauri Markkanen: 120.1 projected fantasy points to 110.9 for Chet Holmgren.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 8:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number