Chet Holmgren vs LaMelo Ball: who to start in Week 2
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), LaMelo Ball 4. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 148.8 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Chet Holmgren. Over the season, LaMelo Ball leads in points leagues (37.2 fantasy points a game to 36.0) and Chet Holmgren in 9-cat leagues (13th against 35th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 26, 4:30 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #41
- 36.0 FP/G, slot 4.05, $21
- 9-cat leagues
- #13
- +3.5 z, slot 2.01, $36
Out (Knee)
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #40
- 37.2 FP/G, slot 4.04, $23
- 9-cat leagues
- #35
- +1.2 z, slot 3.11, $22
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: LaMelo Ball. 37.2 fantasy points per game against 36.0, 40th on our board to 41st.
9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren instead, +3.5 in summed z-scores against +1.2 (13th to 35th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and LaMelo Ball in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, LaMelo Ball produces more: 49.4 fantasy points to 44.5, on 27.1 minutes a night against 29.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), LaMelo Ball 4. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 148.8 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Chet Holmgren.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Chet Holmgren | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 36.0 | 37.2 |
| Minutes | 29.1 | 27.1 |
| PointsPTS | 16.3 | 19.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 9.0 | 4.5 |
| AssistsAST | 1.6 | 7.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Threes3PM | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| Field goal %FG% | 53.7% | 40.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.6% | 87.0% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.6 | 2.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Chet Holmgren | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 44.5 | 49.4 |
| Points | 20.1 | 25.7 |
| Rebounds | 11.1 | 5.9 |
| Assists | 2.0 | 9.3 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Blocks | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| Threes | 1.5 | 5.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 3.5 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Chet Holmgren | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.0 | +0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.5 | -0.5 |
| AssistsAST | -1.0 | +1.7 |
| StealsSTL | -1.1 | +0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | +2.9 | -1.0 |
| Threes3PM | -0.5 | +2.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.0 | -2.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.4 | +0.6 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.4 | -1.0 |
| Total | +3.5 | +1.2 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to LaMelo Ball.
| Punt | Chet Holmgren | LaMelo Ball |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | +3.5 (#6) | +0.5 (#47) |
| REB | +2.0 (#25) | +1.9 (#27) |
| AST | +4.6 (#6) | -0.7 (#83) |
| STL | +4.5 (#6) | +0.3 (#57) |
| BLK | +0.5 (#46) | +2.2 (#24) |
| 3PM | +4.0 (#6) | -1.2 (#101) |
| FG% | +2.5 (#24) | +3.6 (#15) |
| FT% | +3.2 (#12) | +0.4 (#48) |
| TO | +3.1 (#21) | +2.2 (#32) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1)
- Chet Holmgren: 3 games (Mon PHX, Wed @DAL, Sat @HOU), 1 back-to-back, listed Out.
- LaMelo Ball: 4 games (Mon @CLE, Wed GSW, Fri LAC, Sat @SAS), 2 back-to-backs.
Recent games
- Chet Holmgren: 34.5 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 36.0 on the board.
- LaMelo Ball: 32.7 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 37.2 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Chet Holmgren playing tonight? · Is LaMelo Ball playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Chet Holmgren, LaMelo Ball
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Chet Holmgren or LaMelo Ball?
Points leagues: LaMelo Ball. 37.2 fantasy points per game against 36.0, 40th on our board to 41st. 9-cat leagues: Chet Holmgren instead, +3.5 in summed z-scores against +1.2 (13th to 35th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Chet Holmgren or LaMelo Ball?
Category by category, Chet Holmgren is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and LaMelo Ball in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 2, Chet Holmgren or LaMelo Ball?
Chet Holmgren plays 3 games in Week 2 (Oct 26-Nov 1), LaMelo Ball 4. For that week alone, start LaMelo Ball: 148.8 projected fantasy points to 0.0 for Chet Holmgren.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 26, 2026 at 4:30 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number