DeMar DeRozan vs Deni Avdija: who to start in Week 1
DeMar DeRozan plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Deni Avdija 2. For that week alone, start Deni Avdija: 85.4 projected fantasy points to 61.7 for DeMar DeRozan. Over the season, Deni Avdija leads in both formats: 42.7 fantasy points a game to 30.9, and 65th against 66th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 11:54 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #76
- 30.9 FP/G, slot 7.04, $13
- 9-cat leagues
- #66
- -0.3 z, slot 6.06, $14
- Points leagues
- #17
- 42.7 FP/G, slot 2.05, $30
- 9-cat leagues
- #65
- -0.3 z, slot 6.05, $14
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.7 fantasy points per game against 30.9, 17th on our board to 76th.
9-cat leagues: Deni Avdija again, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -0.3 (65th to 66th).
Category by category, DeMar DeRozan is ahead in 4 (STL, FG%, FT% and TO) and Deni Avdija in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK and 3PM).
Per 36 minutes, Deni Avdija produces more: 47.0 fantasy points to 35.6, on 32.7 minutes a night against 31.2. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
DeMar DeRozan plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Deni Avdija 2. For that week alone, start Deni Avdija: 85.4 projected fantasy points to 61.7 for DeMar DeRozan.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | DeMar DeRozan | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 30.9 | 42.7 |
| Minutes | 31.2 | 32.7 |
| PointsPTS | 18.4 | 23.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.9 | 7.1 |
| AssistsAST | 4.1 | 6.5 |
| StealsSTL | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| Field goal %FG% | 49.7% | 46.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 86.8% | 79.3% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 77 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | DeMar DeRozan | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.6 | 47.0 |
| Points | 21.2 | 26.2 |
| Rebounds | 3.4 | 7.8 |
| Assists | 4.7 | 7.2 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Threes | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.4 | 4.1 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | DeMar DeRozan | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +0.3 | +1.3 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.3 | +0.6 |
| AssistsAST | +0.2 | +1.5 |
| StealsSTL | +0.1 | -0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Threes3PM | -1.0 | +0.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.2 | -0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +1.2 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.8 | -2.4 |
| Total | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, assists, blocks and threes flips the 9-cat answer to DeMar DeRozan.
| Punt | DeMar DeRozan | Deni Avdija |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.6 (#88) | -1.6 (#135) |
| REB | +0.9 (#38) | -1.2 (#96) |
| AST | -0.6 (#79) | -1.9 (#146) |
| STL | -0.5 (#75) | +0.1 (#61) |
| BLK | +0.4 (#49) | -0.3 (#68) |
| 3PM | +0.6 (#47) | -0.6 (#81) |
| FG% | -0.7 (#76) | -0.0 (#61) |
| FT% | -1.6 (#118) | -0.3 (#74) |
| TO | -1.1 (#84) | +2.1 (#34) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- DeMar DeRozan: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
- Deni Avdija: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC).
Recent games
- DeMar DeRozan: 29.4 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 30.9 on the board.
- Deni Avdija: 40.0 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 42.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is DeMar DeRozan playing tonight? · Is Deni Avdija playing tonight?
Rookie cards: DeMar DeRozan, Deni Avdija
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, DeMar DeRozan or Deni Avdija?
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.7 fantasy points per game against 30.9, 17th on our board to 76th. 9-cat leagues: Deni Avdija again, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -0.3 (65th to 66th).
Who wins more categories, DeMar DeRozan or Deni Avdija?
Category by category, DeMar DeRozan is ahead in 4 (STL, FG%, FT% and TO) and Deni Avdija in 5 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK and 3PM).
Who should I start in Week 1, DeMar DeRozan or Deni Avdija?
DeMar DeRozan plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Deni Avdija 2. For that week alone, start Deni Avdija: 85.4 projected fantasy points to 61.7 for DeMar DeRozan.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 11:54 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number