Deni Avdija vs Paolo Banchero: who to start in Week 1
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Paolo Banchero: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 85.4 for Deni Avdija. Over the season, Deni Avdija leads in both formats: 42.7 fantasy points a game to 41.7, and 65th against 90th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 8:57 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #17
- 42.7 FP/G, slot 2.05, $30
- 9-cat leagues
- #65
- -0.3 z, slot 6.05, $14
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #20
- 41.7 FP/G, slot 2.08, $29
- 9-cat leagues
- #90
- -1.1 z, slot 8.06, $10
The call
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.7 fantasy points per game against 41.7, 17th on our board to 20th.
9-cat leagues: Deni Avdija again, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (65th to 90th).
Category by category, Deni Avdija is ahead in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK, 3PM and FT%) and Paolo Banchero in 3 (REB, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Deni Avdija produces more: 47.0 fantasy points to 42.7, on 32.7 minutes a night against 35.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Paolo Banchero: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 85.4 for Deni Avdija.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Deni Avdija | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 42.7 | 41.7 |
| Minutes | 32.7 | 35.1 |
| PointsPTS | 23.8 | 23.0 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.1 | 8.3 |
| AssistsAST | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 46.1% | 47.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 79.3% | 77.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Deni Avdija | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 47.0 | 42.7 |
| Points | 26.2 | 23.6 |
| Rebounds | 7.8 | 8.5 |
| Assists | 7.2 | 5.6 |
| Steals | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Threes | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Turnovers | 4.1 | 3.3 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Deni Avdija | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | +1.3 | +1.1 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| AssistsAST | +1.5 | +0.9 |
| StealsSTL | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Threes3PM | +0.3 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.7 | -0.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| TurnoversTO | -2.4 | -1.8 |
| Total | -0.3 | -1.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
No punt changes the answer: Deni Avdija stays ahead whichever category you give up.
| Punt | Deni Avdija | Paolo Banchero |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.6 (#135) | -2.2 (#175) |
| REB | -1.2 (#96) | -2.6 (#173) |
| AST | -1.9 (#146) | -2.1 (#153) |
| STL | +0.1 (#61) | -0.3 (#70) |
| BLK | -0.3 (#68) | -1.0 (#87) |
| 3PM | -0.6 (#81) | -0.7 (#87) |
| FG% | -0.0 (#61) | -1.5 (#99) |
| FT% | -0.3 (#74) | -0.5 (#77) |
| TO | +2.1 (#34) | +0.7 (#51) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Deni Avdija: 2 games (Wed PHX, Fri @SAC).
- Paolo Banchero: 3 games (Wed ATL, Fri MIN, Sun @NYK).
Recent games
- Deni Avdija: 40.0 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 42.7 on the board.
- Paolo Banchero: 55.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 41.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Deni Avdija playing tonight? · Is Paolo Banchero playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Deni Avdija, Paolo Banchero
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Deni Avdija or Paolo Banchero?
Points leagues: Deni Avdija. 42.7 fantasy points per game against 41.7, 17th on our board to 20th. 9-cat leagues: Deni Avdija again, -0.3 in summed z-scores against -1.1 (65th to 90th).
Who wins more categories, Deni Avdija or Paolo Banchero?
Category by category, Deni Avdija is ahead in 6 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK, 3PM and FT%) and Paolo Banchero in 3 (REB, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Deni Avdija or Paolo Banchero?
Deni Avdija plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paolo Banchero 3. For that week alone, start Paolo Banchero: 125.0 projected fantasy points to 85.4 for Deni Avdija.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 8:57 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number