Draymond Green vs Keon Ellis: who to start in Week 1
Draymond Green plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Draymond Green: 74.7 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis. Over the season, Draymond Green leads in both formats: 24.9 fantasy points a game to 15.7, and 192nd against 194th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #137
- 24.9 FP/G, slot 12.05, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #192
- -3.6 z, slot 16.12
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #276
- 15.7 FP/G, slot 23.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #194
- -3.6 z, slot 17.02
The call
Points leagues: Draymond Green. 24.9 fantasy points per game against 15.7, 137th on our board to 276th.
9-cat leagues: Draymond Green again, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (192nd to 194th).
Category by category, Draymond Green is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, AST and 3PM) and Keon Ellis in 4 (STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Draymond Green produces more: 33.1 fantasy points to 26.5, on 27.1 minutes a night against 21.4. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Draymond Green plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Draymond Green: 74.7 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Draymond Green | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.9 | 15.7 |
| Minutes | 27.1 | 21.4 |
| PointsPTS | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.4 | 1.9 |
| AssistsAST | 5.7 | 1.2 |
| StealsSTL | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Field goal %FG% | 41.2% | 43.9% |
| Free throw %FT% | 70.2% | 72.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 68 | 72 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Draymond Green | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.1 | 26.5 |
| Points | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| Rebounds | 7.2 | 3.2 |
| Assists | 7.6 | 2.0 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Threes | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Turnovers | 3.6 | 1.0 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Draymond Green | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.5 | -1.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.2 | -1.8 |
| AssistsAST | +1.0 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -0.3 | +0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.1 | -0.0 |
| Threes3PM | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.9 | -0.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | -1.1 | +1.6 |
| Total | -3.6 | -3.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, assists and threes flips the 9-cat answer to Keon Ellis.
| Punt | Draymond Green | Keon Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.2 (#172) | -2.0 (#163) |
| REB | -3.6 (#232) | -2.0 (#135) |
| AST | -4.7 (#276) | -2.4 (#173) |
| STL | -3.3 (#200) | -4.3 (#260) |
| BLK | -3.7 (#213) | -3.8 (#220) |
| 3PM | -3.3 (#200) | -3.2 (#194) |
| FG% | -3.0 (#158) | -3.4 (#176) |
| FT% | -3.2 (#181) | -3.4 (#190) |
| TO | -2.6 (#126) | -5.4 (#222) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Draymond Green: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back.
- Keon Ellis: 3 games (Wed CHA, Sat @CLE, Sun IND), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Draymond Green: 20.8 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 24.9 on the board.
- Keon Ellis: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 15.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Draymond Green playing tonight? · Is Keon Ellis playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Draymond Green
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Draymond Green or Keon Ellis?
Points leagues: Draymond Green. 24.9 fantasy points per game against 15.7, 137th on our board to 276th. 9-cat leagues: Draymond Green again, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (192nd to 194th).
Who wins more categories, Draymond Green or Keon Ellis?
Category by category, Draymond Green is ahead in 4 (PTS, REB, AST and 3PM) and Keon Ellis in 4 (STL, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Draymond Green or Keon Ellis?
Draymond Green plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keon Ellis 3. For that week alone, start Draymond Green: 74.7 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number