Keon Ellis vs Tim Hardaway Jr.: who to start in Week 1
Keon Ellis plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Tim Hardaway Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Tim Hardaway Jr.: 58.6 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis. Over the season, Tim Hardaway Jr. leads in points leagues (19.5 fantasy points a game to 15.7) and Keon Ellis in 9-cat leagues (194th against 195th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 1:54 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #276
- 15.7 FP/G, slot 23.12
- 9-cat leagues
- #194
- -3.6 z, slot 17.02
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #212
- 19.5 FP/G, slot 18.08
- 9-cat leagues
- #195
- -3.6 z, slot 17.03
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Tim Hardaway Jr.. 19.5 fantasy points per game against 15.7, 212th on our board to 276th.
9-cat leagues: Keon Ellis instead, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (194th to 195th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Keon Ellis is ahead in 3 (STL, BLK and FG%) and Tim Hardaway Jr. in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Tim Hardaway Jr. produces more: 27.0 fantasy points to 26.5, on 26.1 minutes a night against 21.4. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Keon Ellis plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Tim Hardaway Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Tim Hardaway Jr.: 58.6 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Keon Ellis | Tim Hardaway Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 15.7 | 19.5 |
| Minutes | 21.4 | 26.1 |
| PointsPTS | 6.7 | 12.8 |
| ReboundsREB | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.2 | 2.7 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.9% | 43.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 72.9% | 81.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 80 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Keon Ellis | Tim Hardaway Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 26.5 | 27.0 |
| Points | 11.3 | 17.7 |
| Rebounds | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| Assists | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Steals | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.1 | 3.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Keon Ellis | Tim Hardaway Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.7 | -0.6 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.8 | -1.4 |
| AssistsAST | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | +0.5 | -1.3 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.0 | -1.2 |
| Threes3PM | -0.4 | +1.1 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | -0.9 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.6 | +1.7 |
| Total | -3.6 | -3.6 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting steals, blocks and field goal percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Tim Hardaway Jr..
| Punt | Keon Ellis | Tim Hardaway Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.0 (#163) | -3.1 (#220) |
| REB | -2.0 (#135) | -2.3 (#150) |
| AST | -2.4 (#173) | -2.6 (#178) |
| STL | -4.3 (#260) | -2.5 (#164) |
| BLK | -3.8 (#220) | -2.6 (#155) |
| 3PM | -3.2 (#194) | -4.8 (#265) |
| FG% | -3.4 (#176) | -2.8 (#154) |
| FT% | -3.4 (#190) | -3.8 (#216) |
| TO | -5.4 (#222) | -5.5 (#227) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Keon Ellis: 3 games (Wed CHA, Sat @CLE, Sun IND), 1 back-to-back.
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: 3 games (Wed MIN, Fri DET, Sat @CHA), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Keon Ellis: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 15.7 on the board.
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: 12.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 19.5 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Keon Ellis playing tonight? · Is Tim Hardaway Jr. playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Keon Ellis or Tim Hardaway Jr.?
Points leagues: Tim Hardaway Jr.. 19.5 fantasy points per game against 15.7, 212th on our board to 276th. 9-cat leagues: Keon Ellis instead, -3.6 in summed z-scores against -3.6 (194th to 195th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Keon Ellis or Tim Hardaway Jr.?
Category by category, Keon Ellis is ahead in 3 (STL, BLK and FG%) and Tim Hardaway Jr. in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, 3PM, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Keon Ellis or Tim Hardaway Jr.?
Keon Ellis plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Tim Hardaway Jr. 3. For that week alone, start Tim Hardaway Jr.: 58.6 projected fantasy points to 47.2 for Keon Ellis.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 1:54 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number