Duncan Robinson vs Marcus Smart: who to start in Week 1
Duncan Robinson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marcus Smart 3. For that week alone, start Marcus Smart: 62.3 projected fantasy points to 62.2 for Duncan Robinson. Over the season, Marcus Smart leads in points leagues (20.8 fantasy points a game to 20.7) and Duncan Robinson in 9-cat leagues (168th against 173rd). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 22, 5:55 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #197
- 20.7 FP/G, slot 17.05
- 9-cat leagues
- #168
- -2.9 z, slot 14.12
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #195
- 20.8 FP/G, slot 17.03
- 9-cat leagues
- #173
- -3.0 z, slot 15.05
The pick in points leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Marcus Smart. 20.8 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 195th on our board to 197th.
9-cat leagues: Duncan Robinson instead, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (168th to 173rd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Duncan Robinson is ahead in 4 (PTS, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Marcus Smart in 4 (AST, STL, BLK and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Duncan Robinson produces more: 27.2 fantasy points to 26.3, on 27.5 minutes a night against 28.4. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Duncan Robinson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marcus Smart 3. For that week alone, start Marcus Smart: 62.3 projected fantasy points to 62.2 for Duncan Robinson.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Duncan Robinson | Marcus Smart |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.7 | 20.8 |
| Minutes | 27.5 | 28.4 |
| PointsPTS | 12.7 | 9.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| AssistsAST | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| StealsSTL | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Threes3PM | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| Field goal %FG% | 45.9% | 40.8% |
| Free throw %FT% | 75.3% | 82.2% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 77 | 62 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Duncan Robinson | Marcus Smart |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 27.2 | 26.3 |
| Points | 16.7 | 11.9 |
| Rebounds | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Assists | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Threes | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| Turnovers | 1.1 | 1.8 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Duncan Robinson | Marcus Smart |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -1.2 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.4 | -1.4 |
| AssistsAST | -0.8 | -0.4 |
| StealsSTL | -1.2 | +1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Threes3PM | +1.4 | -0.0 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.4 | -1.0 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.3 | +0.5 |
| Total | -2.9 | -3.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, threes, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Marcus Smart.
| Punt | Duncan Robinson | Marcus Smart |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#184) | -1.8 (#156) |
| REB | -1.6 (#116) | -1.8 (#125) |
| AST | -2.2 (#163) | -2.7 (#187) |
| STL | -1.9 (#136) | -4.1 (#243) |
| BLK | -2.2 (#138) | -2.5 (#147) |
| 3PM | -4.3 (#240) | -3.0 (#181) |
| FG% | -2.5 (#139) | -2.2 (#128) |
| FT% | -2.8 (#167) | -3.2 (#180) |
| TO | -4.3 (#189) | -3.6 (#158) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 391 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Duncan Robinson: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
- Marcus Smart: 3 games (Wed DAL, Fri @SAS, Sat @ATL), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Duncan Robinson: 26.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 20.7 on the board.
- Marcus Smart: 17.4 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 20.8 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Duncan Robinson playing tonight? · Is Marcus Smart playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Duncan Robinson or Marcus Smart?
Points leagues: Marcus Smart. 20.8 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 195th on our board to 197th. 9-cat leagues: Duncan Robinson instead, -2.9 in summed z-scores against -3.0 (168th to 173rd), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Duncan Robinson or Marcus Smart?
Category by category, Duncan Robinson is ahead in 4 (PTS, 3PM, FG% and TO) and Marcus Smart in 4 (AST, STL, BLK and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Duncan Robinson or Marcus Smart?
Duncan Robinson plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marcus Smart 3. For that week alone, start Marcus Smart: 62.3 projected fantasy points to 62.2 for Duncan Robinson.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 22, 2026 at 5:55 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number