Herbert Jones vs Jaxson Hayes: who to start in Week 1
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jaxson Hayes 3. For that week alone, start Herbert Jones: 60.5 projected fantasy points to 56.9 for Jaxson Hayes. Over the season, Herbert Jones leads in points leagues (20.2 fantasy points a game to 19.0) and Jaxson Hayes in 9-cat leagues (177th against 178th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 4:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #205
- 20.2 FP/G, slot 18.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #178
- -3.2 z, slot 15.10
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #223
- 19.0 FP/G, slot 19.07
- 9-cat leagues
- #177
- -3.1 z, slot 15.09
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Herbert Jones. 20.2 fantasy points per game against 19.0, 205th on our board to 223rd.
9-cat leagues: Jaxson Hayes instead, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (177th to 178th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Jaxson Hayes in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Jaxson Hayes produces more: 35.6 fantasy points to 26.8, on 19.2 minutes a night against 27.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jaxson Hayes 3. For that week alone, start Herbert Jones: 60.5 projected fantasy points to 56.9 for Jaxson Hayes.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Herbert Jones | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.2 | 19.0 |
| Minutes | 27.1 | 19.2 |
| PointsPTS | 8.3 | 7.9 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.2 | 4.2 |
| AssistsAST | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| StealsSTL | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 38.8% | 76.5% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.6% | 63.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 56 | 66 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Herbert Jones | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 26.8 | 35.6 |
| Points | 11.0 | 14.9 |
| Rebounds | 4.2 | 7.9 |
| Assists | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| Steals | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Threes | 1.8 | 0.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.6 | 0.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Herbert Jones | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.4 | -1.5 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| AssistsAST | -0.6 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | +1.1 | -1.4 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.5 | +0.9 |
| Threes3PM | -0.3 | -1.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.3 | +1.9 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.0 | -1.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.8 | +1.7 |
| Total | -3.2 | -3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Herbert Jones.
| Punt | Herbert Jones | Jaxson Hayes |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -1.9 (#156) | -1.7 (#152) |
| REB | -2.2 (#139) | -2.8 (#180) |
| AST | -2.7 (#186) | -2.0 (#148) |
| STL | -4.4 (#267) | -1.9 (#139) |
| BLK | -2.9 (#166) | -4.4 (#247) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#184) | -1.5 (#114) |
| FG% | -2.1 (#128) | -5.9 (#292) |
| FT% | -3.3 (#185) | -1.9 (#135) |
| TO | -4.2 (#184) | -5.0 (#214) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Herbert Jones: 3 games (Wed IND, Fri @UTA, Sat @DEN), 1 back-to-back.
- Jaxson Hayes: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
Recent games
- Herbert Jones: 6.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.2 on the board.
- Jaxson Hayes: 33.8 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 19.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Herbert Jones playing tonight? · Is Jaxson Hayes playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Herbert Jones or Jaxson Hayes?
Points leagues: Herbert Jones. 20.2 fantasy points per game against 19.0, 205th on our board to 223rd. 9-cat leagues: Jaxson Hayes instead, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.2 (177th to 178th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Herbert Jones or Jaxson Hayes?
Category by category, Herbert Jones is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Jaxson Hayes in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Herbert Jones or Jaxson Hayes?
Herbert Jones plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Jaxson Hayes 3. For that week alone, start Herbert Jones: 60.5 projected fantasy points to 56.9 for Jaxson Hayes.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 4:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number