Javon Small vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Javon Small plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Javon Small: 62.1 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Javon Small leads in both formats: 20.7 fantasy points a game to 20.7, and 184th against 208th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #193
- 20.7 FP/G, slot 17.01
- 9-cat leagues
- #184
- -3.4 z, slot 16.04
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #194
- 20.7 FP/G, slot 17.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #208
- -4.0 z, slot 18.04
The call
Points leagues: Javon Small. 20.7 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 193rd on our board to 194th.
9-cat leagues: Javon Small again, -3.4 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (184th to 208th).
Category by category, Javon Small is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 36.8, on 18.8 minutes a night against 20.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Javon Small plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Javon Small: 62.1 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Javon Small | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 20.7 | 20.7 |
| Minutes | 20.2 | 18.8 |
| PointsPTS | 9.7 | 9.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 3.1 | 5.8 |
| AssistsAST | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 46.5% | 61.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 82.9% | 65.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 41 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Javon Small | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 36.8 | 39.5 |
| Points | 17.2 | 18.4 |
| Rebounds | 5.6 | 11.1 |
| Assists | 6.5 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Threes | 2.6 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.4 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Javon Small | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.2 | -1.2 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.2 | +0.0 |
| AssistsAST | +0.0 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -0.5 | -1.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -0.2 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.2 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.2 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| Total | -3.4 | -4.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Javon Small | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.2 (#181) | -2.8 (#209) |
| REB | -2.3 (#152) | -4.3 (#265) |
| AST | -3.5 (#219) | -2.9 (#187) |
| STL | -2.9 (#180) | -2.4 (#158) |
| BLK | -2.6 (#154) | -4.2 (#235) |
| 3PM | -3.2 (#188) | -2.6 (#171) |
| FG% | -3.3 (#169) | -6.1 (#296) |
| FT% | -3.6 (#202) | -2.9 (#174) |
| TO | -4.1 (#182) | -5.2 (#216) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Javon Small: 3 games (Wed UTA, Fri @GSW, Sun @SAC).
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Javon Small: 24.4 fantasy points a game over his last 10 of 2025-26, against 20.7 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 7.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Javon Small playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Javon Small
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Javon Small or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Javon Small. 20.7 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 193rd on our board to 194th. 9-cat leagues: Javon Small again, -3.4 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (184th to 208th).
Who wins more categories, Javon Small or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Javon Small is ahead in 4 (AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Javon Small or Marvin Bagley III?
Javon Small plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Javon Small: 62.1 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number