Aaron Nesmith vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 68.8 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Aaron Nesmith leads in both formats: 22.9 fantasy points a game to 20.7, and 206th against 208th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
Parlae may earn a commission from price links.
- Points leagues
- #156
- 22.9 FP/G, slot 13.12, $1
- 9-cat leagues
- #206
- -3.9 z, slot 18.02
Game-time decision (Hamstring)
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #194
- 20.7 FP/G, slot 17.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #208
- -4.0 z, slot 18.04
The call
Points leagues: Aaron Nesmith. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 156th on our board to 194th.
9-cat leagues: Aaron Nesmith again, -3.9 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (206th to 208th).
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Marvin Bagley III produces more: 39.5 fantasy points to 28.4, on 18.8 minutes a night against 29.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 68.8 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
Advertisement
Per game, side by side
| Per game | Aaron Nesmith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.9 | 20.7 |
| Minutes | 29.1 | 18.8 |
| PointsPTS | 13.5 | 9.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.1 | 5.8 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 40.9% | 61.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.6% | 65.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 45 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Aaron Nesmith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 28.4 | 39.5 |
| Points | 16.7 | 18.4 |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 11.1 |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Threes | 2.8 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
Advertisement
9-category z-scores
| Category | Aaron Nesmith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -1.2 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.7 | +0.0 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | +0.6 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.4 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.6 | +1.1 |
| Total | -3.9 | -4.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Marvin Bagley III.
| Punt | Aaron Nesmith | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.4 (#241) | -2.8 (#209) |
| REB | -3.3 (#210) | -4.3 (#265) |
| AST | -3.1 (#199) | -2.9 (#187) |
| STL | -2.7 (#172) | -2.4 (#158) |
| BLK | -3.7 (#205) | -4.2 (#235) |
| 3PM | -4.6 (#258) | -2.6 (#171) |
| FG% | -2.6 (#145) | -6.1 (#296) |
| FT% | -4.0 (#216) | -2.9 (#174) |
| TO | -4.6 (#195) | -5.2 (#216) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Aaron Nesmith: 3 games (Wed @NOP, Fri DAL, Sun @BKN), listed GTD.
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Aaron Nesmith: 14.3 fantasy points a game over his last 1 of 2026-27, against 22.9 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 7.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.7 on the board.
Advertisement
Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Aaron Nesmith playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Aaron Nesmith or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Aaron Nesmith. 22.9 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 156th on our board to 194th. 9-cat leagues: Aaron Nesmith again, -3.9 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (206th to 208th).
Who wins more categories, Aaron Nesmith or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Aaron Nesmith is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Aaron Nesmith or Marvin Bagley III?
Aaron Nesmith plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Aaron Nesmith: 68.8 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number