Brandon Williams vs Marvin Bagley III: who to start in Week 1
Brandon Williams plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Brandon Williams: 72.7 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III. Over the season, Brandon Williams leads in points leagues (24.2 fantasy points a game to 20.7) and Marvin Bagley III in 9-cat leagues (208th against 210th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 8:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #146
- 24.2 FP/G, slot 13.02, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #210
- -4.0 z, slot 18.06
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #194
- 20.7 FP/G, slot 17.02
- 9-cat leagues
- #208
- -4.0 z, slot 18.04
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Brandon Williams. 24.2 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 146th on our board to 194th.
9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III instead, -4.0 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (208th to 210th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Brandon Williams is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Brandon Williams produces more: 41.0 fantasy points to 39.5, on 21.3 minutes a night against 18.8. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
Brandon Williams plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Brandon Williams: 72.7 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Brandon Williams | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.2 | 20.7 |
| Minutes | 21.3 | 18.8 |
| PointsPTS | 13.0 | 9.6 |
| ReboundsREB | 2.9 | 5.8 |
| AssistsAST | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| StealsSTL | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Threes3PM | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 44.9% | 61.7% |
| Free throw %FT% | 80.6% | 65.1% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 66 | 60 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Brandon Williams | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 41.0 | 39.5 |
| Points | 21.9 | 18.4 |
| Rebounds | 4.9 | 11.1 |
| Assists | 6.3 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Threes | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 3.2 | 1.9 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Brandon Williams | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.6 | -1.2 |
| ReboundsREB | -1.3 | +0.0 |
| AssistsAST | +0.1 | -1.2 |
| StealsSTL | +0.2 | -1.7 |
| BlocksBLK | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -1.1 | -1.3 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -0.6 | +1.4 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | +0.1 | -1.0 |
| TurnoversTO | -0.1 | +1.1 |
| Total | -4.0 | -4.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Brandon Williams.
| Punt | Brandon Williams | Marvin Bagley III |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -3.4 (#240) | -2.8 (#209) |
| REB | -2.9 (#183) | -4.3 (#265) |
| AST | -4.1 (#249) | -2.9 (#187) |
| STL | -4.3 (#256) | -2.4 (#158) |
| BLK | -3.4 (#190) | -4.2 (#235) |
| 3PM | -3.0 (#180) | -2.6 (#171) |
| FG% | -3.9 (#203) | -6.1 (#296) |
| FT% | -4.1 (#222) | -2.9 (#174) |
| TO | -4.0 (#179) | -5.2 (#216) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Brandon Williams: 3 games (Wed @LAL, Fri MEM, Sat @PHX), 1 back-to-back.
- Marvin Bagley III: 2 games (Thu @OKC, Sat NOP).
Recent games
- Brandon Williams: 24.8 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 24.2 on the board.
- Marvin Bagley III: 7.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.7 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Brandon Williams playing tonight? · Is Marvin Bagley III playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Brandon Williams or Marvin Bagley III?
Points leagues: Brandon Williams. 24.2 fantasy points per game against 20.7, 146th on our board to 194th. 9-cat leagues: Marvin Bagley III instead, -4.0 in summed z-scores against -4.0 (208th to 210th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Brandon Williams or Marvin Bagley III?
Category by category, Brandon Williams is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%) and Marvin Bagley III in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Brandon Williams or Marvin Bagley III?
Brandon Williams plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Marvin Bagley III 2. For that week alone, start Brandon Williams: 72.7 projected fantasy points to 41.3 for Marvin Bagley III.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 8:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number