John Collins vs Matas Buzelis: who to start in Week 1
John Collins plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Matas Buzelis: 89.9 projected fantasy points to 75.0 for John Collins. Over the season, Matas Buzelis leads in both formats: 30.0 fantasy points a game to 25.0, and 84th against 86th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 4:29 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #133
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.01, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #86
- -1.0 z, slot 8.02, $10
- Points leagues
- #81
- 30.0 FP/G, slot 7.09, $12
- 9-cat leagues
- #84
- -1.0 z, slot 7.12, $10
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Matas Buzelis. 30.0 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 81st on our board to 133rd.
9-cat leagues: Matas Buzelis again, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.0 (84th to 86th).
Category by category, John Collins is ahead in 3 (STL, FG% and TO) and Matas Buzelis in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Matas Buzelis produces more: 37.7 fantasy points to 33.1, on 28.6 minutes a night against 27.2. He already plays as much or more, so the gap is not a role waiting to grow.
John Collins plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Matas Buzelis: 89.9 projected fantasy points to 75.0 for John Collins.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | John Collins | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 30.0 |
| Minutes | 27.2 | 28.6 |
| PointsPTS | 13.7 | 16.1 |
| ReboundsREB | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| AssistsAST | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Threes3PM | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Field goal %FG% | 55.1% | 45.0% |
| Free throw %FT% | 76.6% | 80.5% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 69 | 77 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | John Collins | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 33.1 | 37.7 |
| Points | 18.1 | 20.2 |
| Rebounds | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Assists | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Threes | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 2.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | John Collins | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.0 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| AssistsAST | -1.3 | -0.8 |
| StealsSTL | -0.6 | -1.0 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.1 | +1.5 |
| Threes3PM | -0.2 | +0.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.1 | -0.7 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.2 | +0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.7 | -0.4 |
| Total | -1.0 | -1.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, rebounds, assists, blocks, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to John Collins.
| Punt | John Collins | Matas Buzelis |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.6 (#86) | -0.9 (#103) |
| REB | -1.0 (#89) | -1.1 (#100) |
| AST | +0.2 (#48) | -0.2 (#60) |
| STL | -0.6 (#76) | -0.0 (#60) |
| BLK | -1.2 (#98) | -2.7 (#159) |
| 3PM | -0.9 (#88) | -1.4 (#106) |
| FG% | -2.3 (#137) | -0.4 (#72) |
| FT% | -0.9 (#86) | -1.1 (#99) |
| TO | -1.8 (#102) | -0.6 (#75) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- John Collins: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
- Matas Buzelis: 3 games (Wed @TOR, Fri @MIL, Sat WAS), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- John Collins: 25.7 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- Matas Buzelis: 25.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 30.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is John Collins playing tonight? · Is Matas Buzelis playing tonight?
Rookie cards: John Collins, Matas Buzelis
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, John Collins or Matas Buzelis?
Points leagues: Matas Buzelis. 30.0 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 81st on our board to 133rd. 9-cat leagues: Matas Buzelis again, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.0 (84th to 86th).
Who wins more categories, John Collins or Matas Buzelis?
Category by category, John Collins is ahead in 3 (STL, FG% and TO) and Matas Buzelis in 6 (PTS, REB, AST, BLK, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, John Collins or Matas Buzelis?
John Collins plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Matas Buzelis 3. For that week alone, start Matas Buzelis: 89.9 projected fantasy points to 75.0 for John Collins.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 4:29 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number