Deandre Ayton vs John Collins: who to start in Week 1
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 75.0 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Deandre Ayton. Over the season, John Collins leads in both formats: 25.0 fantasy points a game to 25.0, and 86th against 102nd in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 2:28 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #134
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.02, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #102
- -1.4 z, slot 9.06, $8
- Points leagues
- #133
- 25.0 FP/G, slot 12.01, $4
- 9-cat leagues
- #86
- -1.0 z, slot 8.02, $10
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: John Collins. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 133rd on our board to 134th.
9-cat leagues: John Collins again, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.4 (86th to 102nd).
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and John Collins in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Deandre Ayton produces more: 35.7 fantasy points to 33.1, on 25.2 minutes a night against 27.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 75.0 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Deandre Ayton.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Deandre Ayton | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Minutes | 25.2 | 27.2 |
| PointsPTS | 11.5 | 13.7 |
| ReboundsREB | 7.5 | 5.4 |
| AssistsAST | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| StealsSTL | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Field goal %FG% | 68.0% | 55.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 63.6% | 76.6% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 69 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Deandre Ayton | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 35.7 | 33.1 |
| Points | 16.5 | 18.1 |
| Rebounds | 10.7 | 7.2 |
| Assists | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Turnovers | 1.5 | 1.7 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Deandre Ayton | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.8 | -0.5 |
| ReboundsREB | +0.8 | -0.1 |
| AssistsAST | -1.4 | -1.3 |
| StealsSTL | -1.4 | -0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +2.5 | +1.1 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.1 | +0.7 |
| Total | -1.4 | -1.0 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, steals, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Deandre Ayton.
| Punt | Deandre Ayton | John Collins |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.6 (#85) | -0.6 (#86) |
| REB | -2.4 (#160) | -1.0 (#89) |
| AST | +0.0 (#53) | +0.2 (#48) |
| STL | -0.1 (#62) | -0.6 (#76) |
| BLK | -2.1 (#143) | -1.2 (#98) |
| 3PM | +0.3 (#51) | -0.9 (#88) |
| FG% | -4.5 (#229) | -2.3 (#137) |
| FT% | -0.5 (#78) | -0.9 (#86) |
| TO | -2.6 (#128) | -1.8 (#102) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Deandre Ayton: 3 games (Wed MIL, Fri TOR, Sat @CHI), 1 back-to-back.
- John Collins: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
Recent games
- Deandre Ayton: 16.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
- John Collins: 25.7 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 25.0 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Deandre Ayton playing tonight? · Is John Collins playing tonight?
Rookie cards: John Collins
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Deandre Ayton or John Collins?
Points leagues: John Collins. 25.0 fantasy points per game against 25.0, 133rd on our board to 134th. 9-cat leagues: John Collins again, -1.0 in summed z-scores against -1.4 (86th to 102nd).
Who wins more categories, Deandre Ayton or John Collins?
Category by category, Deandre Ayton is ahead in 4 (REB, BLK, FG% and TO) and John Collins in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Deandre Ayton or John Collins?
Deandre Ayton plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), John Collins 3. For that week alone, start John Collins: 75.0 projected fantasy points to 74.9 for Deandre Ayton.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 2:28 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number