Mitchell Robinson vs Paul Reed: who to start in Week 1
Mitchell Robinson plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Paul Reed: 61.2 projected fantasy points to 44.4 for Mitchell Robinson. Over the season, Mitchell Robinson leads in points leagues (22.2 fantasy points a game to 20.4) and Paul Reed in 9-cat leagues (159th against 160th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 24, 6:26 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #165
- 22.2 FP/G, slot 14.09
- 9-cat leagues
- #160
- -2.6 z, slot 14.04
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #200
- 20.4 FP/G, slot 17.08
- 9-cat leagues
- #159
- -2.5 z, slot 14.03
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Mitchell Robinson. 22.2 fantasy points per game against 20.4, 165th on our board to 200th.
9-cat leagues: Paul Reed instead, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -2.6 (159th to 160th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Mitchell Robinson is ahead in 4 (REB, STL, BLK and TO) and Paul Reed in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%).
Per 36 minutes, Paul Reed produces more: 49.8 fantasy points to 40.6, on 14.8 minutes a night against 19.7. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Mitchell Robinson plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Paul Reed: 61.2 projected fantasy points to 44.4 for Mitchell Robinson.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Mitchell Robinson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 22.2 | 20.4 |
| Minutes | 19.7 | 14.8 |
| PointsPTS | 5.5 | 8.3 |
| ReboundsREB | 8.1 | 5.0 |
| AssistsAST | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Threes3PM | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 71.7% | 63.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 37.8% | 69.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 60 | 65 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Mitchell Robinson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 40.6 | 49.8 |
| Points | 10.0 | 20.3 |
| Rebounds | 14.9 | 12.2 |
| Assists | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| Steals | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Blocks | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Threes | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.3 | 2.2 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Mitchell Robinson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -1.9 | -1.4 |
| ReboundsREB | +1.1 | -0.3 |
| AssistsAST | -1.3 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.4 | -0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | +1.1 | +0.3 |
| Threes3PM | -1.7 | -1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -2.1 | -0.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +1.4 | +1.2 |
| Total | -2.6 | -2.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, threes and free throw percentage flips the 9-cat answer to Mitchell Robinson.
| Punt | Mitchell Robinson | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -0.7 (#93) | -1.1 (#117) |
| REB | -4.1 (#261) | -2.4 (#155) |
| AST | -1.3 (#117) | -1.4 (#120) |
| STL | -2.3 (#155) | -2.1 (#147) |
| BLK | -4.1 (#235) | -3.1 (#173) |
| 3PM | -0.8 (#85) | -1.1 (#99) |
| FG% | -4.9 (#248) | -4.4 (#223) |
| FT% | -0.3 (#71) | -1.9 (#139) |
| TO | -4.2 (#186) | -3.9 (#172) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Mitchell Robinson: 2 games (Tue @DET, Fri NYK).
- Paul Reed: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
Recent games
- Mitchell Robinson: 15.5 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 22.2 on the board.
- Paul Reed: 27.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Mitchell Robinson playing tonight? · Is Paul Reed playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Mitchell Robinson
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Mitchell Robinson or Paul Reed?
Points leagues: Mitchell Robinson. 22.2 fantasy points per game against 20.4, 165th on our board to 200th. 9-cat leagues: Paul Reed instead, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -2.6 (159th to 160th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Mitchell Robinson or Paul Reed?
Category by category, Mitchell Robinson is ahead in 4 (REB, STL, BLK and TO) and Paul Reed in 4 (PTS, AST, 3PM and FT%).
Who should I start in Week 1, Mitchell Robinson or Paul Reed?
Mitchell Robinson plays 2 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Paul Reed: 61.2 projected fantasy points to 44.4 for Mitchell Robinson.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 24, 2026 at 6:26 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number