Naji Marshall vs Paul Reed: who to start in Week 1
Naji Marshall plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Naji Marshall: 83.9 projected fantasy points to 61.2 for Paul Reed. Over the season, Naji Marshall leads in points leagues (28.0 fantasy points a game to 20.4) and Paul Reed in 9-cat leagues (157th against 158th). The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 2:29 PM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #101
- 28.0 FP/G, slot 9.05, $9
- 9-cat leagues
- #158
- -2.5 z, slot 14.02
The pick in points leagues.
- Points leagues
- #200
- 20.4 FP/G, slot 17.08
- 9-cat leagues
- #157
- -2.5 z, slot 14.01
The pick in 9-cat leagues.
The call
Points leagues: Naji Marshall. 28.0 fantasy points per game against 20.4, 101st on our board to 200th.
9-cat leagues: Paul Reed instead, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -2.5 (157th to 158th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Category by category, Naji Marshall is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and 3PM) and Paul Reed in 5 (REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Paul Reed produces more: 49.8 fantasy points to 34.5, on 14.8 minutes a night against 29.2. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Naji Marshall plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Naji Marshall: 83.9 projected fantasy points to 61.2 for Paul Reed.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Naji Marshall | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 28.0 | 20.4 |
| Minutes | 29.2 | 14.8 |
| PointsPTS | 15.0 | 8.3 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| AssistsAST | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Threes3PM | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Field goal %FG% | 50.6% | 63.1% |
| Free throw %FT% | 73.3% | 69.9% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 74 | 65 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Naji Marshall | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 34.5 | 49.8 |
| Points | 18.5 | 20.3 |
| Rebounds | 5.5 | 12.2 |
| Assists | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Steals | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Blocks | 0.1 | 2.0 |
| Threes | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.1 | 2.2 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Naji Marshall | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.2 | -1.4 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.6 | -0.3 |
| AssistsAST | +0.0 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | +0.5 | -0.5 |
| BlocksBLK | -1.3 | +0.3 |
| Threes3PM | -0.8 | -1.4 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | +0.4 | +1.3 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.8 | -0.5 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.2 | +1.2 |
| Total | -2.5 | -2.5 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting rebounds, blocks, field goal percentage, free throw percentage and turnovers flips the 9-cat answer to Naji Marshall.
| Punt | Naji Marshall | Paul Reed |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.3 (#186) | -1.1 (#116) |
| REB | -2.2 (#142) | -2.4 (#159) |
| AST | -2.6 (#179) | -1.4 (#120) |
| STL | -3.0 (#184) | -2.1 (#146) |
| BLK | -1.4 (#108) | -3.1 (#171) |
| 3PM | -1.8 (#128) | -1.1 (#98) |
| FG% | -3.5 (#180) | -4.3 (#221) |
| FT% | -1.8 (#128) | -2.0 (#137) |
| TO | -2.8 (#136) | -3.9 (#174) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Naji Marshall: 3 games (Wed @HOU, Fri @IND, Sat SAS), 1 back-to-back.
- Paul Reed: 3 games (Tue BOS, Fri @MIA, Sun @PHI).
Recent games
- Naji Marshall: 29.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 28.0 on the board.
- Paul Reed: 27.0 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 20.4 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Naji Marshall playing tonight? · Is Paul Reed playing tonight?
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Naji Marshall or Paul Reed?
Points leagues: Naji Marshall. 28.0 fantasy points per game against 20.4, 101st on our board to 200th. 9-cat leagues: Paul Reed instead, -2.5 in summed z-scores against -2.5 (157th to 158th), because the categories pay for a different mix.
Who wins more categories, Naji Marshall or Paul Reed?
Category by category, Naji Marshall is ahead in 4 (PTS, AST, STL and 3PM) and Paul Reed in 5 (REB, BLK, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Naji Marshall or Paul Reed?
Naji Marshall plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Paul Reed 3. For that week alone, start Naji Marshall: 83.9 projected fantasy points to 61.2 for Paul Reed.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 2:29 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number