Start J.K. Dobbins or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 7:51 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Dobbins projects lower, 14.6 to 16.4, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 90 for Dobbins, 110 for Jones.

Start

J.K. Dobbins

RB · DEN · at ARI

Market projects: 14.6; fantasy pts
ARI D vs RB: 20.4; 14th fewest to RBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 77 of 100 at RB
Snap share: 44%; Through Week 6
Target share: 5%; Through Week 6

Sit

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MIN · vs IND

Market projects: 16.4; recent weeks avg
IND D vs RB: 23.9; 6th most to RBs (2026)
Upside: High; 95 of 100 at RB

Should I drop J.K. Dobbins for Aaron Jones Sr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 168 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 11 games), J.K. Dobbins 93 (9.3 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr. So make the move after his Week 7 game.

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Our Week 7 call

Start J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr. in Week 7.

Market-based projections have J.K. Dobbins at 14.6 points and Aaron Jones Sr. at 16.4, a gap of 1.8. J.K. Dobbins still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 90 against 110, and that outweighs a gap this size. J.K. Dobbins's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. No player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. this week yet, so his 16.4 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 4 and 5 (16.6 and 16.2); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Market coverage on J.K. Dobbins is 70 percent of what his position needs, so the market side of this carries proportionally less weight.

What the market projects

No Week 7 player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. yet. His market-based projections were 16.7 and 16.2 points in Weeks 4 and 5, an average of 16.4, which stands in until his Week 7 market posts.

The market-based projection for Aaron Jones Sr. is 0.7 touchdowns (13 market sources).

Player markets imply 14.6 fantasy points for J.K. Dobbins, with 70 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for J.K. Dobbins is 59 rushing yards and 0.6 touchdowns (12 and 10 market sources).

That puts Aaron Jones Sr. 1.8 points ahead of J.K. Dobbins on these projections.

Week 7 matchups

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 23.9 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 6th most in the league.

Running backs ran for 96 yards and 0.8 touchdowns a game against IND and caught passes for 45 more yards.

J.K. Dobbins and DEN visit ARI on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

ARI allowed 20.4 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 14th fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 107 yards and 0.7 touchdowns a game against ARI and caught passes for 25 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Aaron Jones Sr. is not on the injury report.

J.K. Dobbins is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, J.K. Dobbins played 44 percent of DEN snaps, took 57 percent of the carries, drew 5 percent of the targets and had 27 percent of the red zone chances.

J.K. Dobbins, Week 3 against LAR: 33 of 67 snaps, 17 carries for 49 yards, 2 targets and 1 catch for 4 yards.

J.K. Dobbins, Week 4 against SF: 21 of 65 snaps, 11 carries for 40 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 12 yards.

J.K. Dobbins, Week 5 against LAC: 32 of 62 snaps, 18 carries for 68 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 6 yards, 1 touchdown.

J.K. Dobbins, Week 6 against SEA: 31 of 60 snaps, 17 carries for 41 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 5 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 16 of 2025 against NYG: 39 of 61 snaps, 21 carries for 85 yards, 3 targets and 2 catches for 8 yards, 11.3 PPR points.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 15 of 2025 against DAL: 32 of 55 snaps, 12 carries for 34 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 31 yards, 9.5 PPR points.

In 2025, J.K. Dobbins played 10 games for DEN and scored 115.9 PPR points, 11.6 a game, finishing RB43.

He ran 153 times for 772 yards and 4 touchdowns, and caught 11 of 14 targets for 37 yards.

He was on the field for 51 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop J.K. Dobbins for Aaron Jones Sr.?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 168 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 11 games), J.K. Dobbins 93 (9.3 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr. So make the move after his Week 7 game.
Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for J.K. Dobbins?
No. Keep Aaron Jones Sr.: he projects 168 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (15.3 a game over 11 games), J.K. Dobbins 93 (9.3 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts J.K. Dobbins over Aaron Jones Sr.