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Start Justice Hill or Aaron Jones Sr.? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 2:06 AM ET.

Latest

  • : Justice Hill: Listed Questionable (Groin) (Sleeper injury feed)

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Justice Hill

Start

Aaron Jones Sr.

RB · MIN · vs BUF

Market projects
9.3
recent weeks avg
BUF D vs RB
27.3
3rd most to RBs (2026)
Snap share
25%
Through Week 8
Target share
6%
Through Week 8
Sit

Justice Hill

RB · BAL · vs JAX · Questionable

Market projects
6.8
fantasy pts
JAX D vs RB
17.3
2nd fewest to RBs (2026)
Snap share
43%
Through Week 8
Target share
11%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Justice Hill for Aaron Jones Sr.?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 127 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 9 games), Justice Hill 36 (4.5 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Justice Hill. Justice Hill is listed questionable.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Aaron Jones Sr. over Justice Hill in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Aaron Jones Sr. at 9.3 points and Justice Hill at 6.8, a gap of 2.5. No player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. this week yet, so his 9.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (11.3 and 7.4); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Aaron Jones Sr. at ADP 110 and Justice Hill at 206.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Aaron Jones Sr. yet. His market-based projections were 11.3 and 7.4 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 9.3, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

Player markets imply 6.8 fantasy points for Justice Hill, with 100 percent of the markets a RB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Justice Hill is 18 rushing yards, 13 receiving yards, 2-3 receptions and 0.2 touchdowns (11, 11, 10 and 11 market sources).

That puts Aaron Jones Sr. 2.5 points ahead of Justice Hill on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Aaron Jones Sr. and MIN host BUF on Monday at 8:15 PM ET.

BUF allowed 27.3 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 3rd most in the league.

Running backs ran for 83 yards and a touchdown a game against BUF and caught passes for 47 more yards.

Justice Hill and BAL host JAX on Thursday at 8:15 PM ET.

JAX allowed 17.3 fantasy points a game to RBs this season over 6 games, the 2nd fewest in the league.

Running backs ran for 52 yards and 0-1 touchdowns a game against JAX and caught passes for 38 more yards.

By points allowed to the position, Aaron Jones Sr. has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Aaron Jones Sr. is not on the injury report.

Justice Hill is listed as questionable with a groin injury.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Aaron Jones Sr. played 25 percent of MIN snaps, took 30 percent of the carries, drew 6 percent of the targets and had 20 percent of the red zone chances.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 7 against IND: 15 of 59 snaps, 8 carries for 26 yards, 1 target and 1 catch for 0 yards.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 8 against DET: 5 carries for 22 yards, 2 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards.

Through Week 8, Justice Hill played 43 percent of BAL snaps, took 11 percent of the carries, drew 11 percent of the targets and had 4 percent of the red zone chances.

Justice Hill, Week 5 against ATL: 35 of 76 snaps, 4 carries for 73 yards, 4 targets and 2 catches for 5 yards.

Justice Hill, Week 6 against CLE: 24 of 57 snaps, 0 carries for 0 yards, 3 targets and 3 catches for 9 yards.

Justice Hill, Week 7 against CIN: 31 of 67 snaps, 3 carries for 7 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 26 yards.

Justice Hill, Week 8 against BUF: 3 carries for 15 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 20 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Aaron Jones Sr. played 12 games for MIN and scored 118.7 PPR points, 9.9 a game, finishing RB41.

He ran 132 times for 548 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 28 of 41 targets for 199 yards.

He was on the field for 55 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Aaron Jones Sr., Week 17 of 2025 against DET: 35 of 54 snaps, 18 carries for 53 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, 15.3 PPR points.

In 2025, Justice Hill played 10 games for BAL and scored 65.2 PPR points, 6.5 a game, finishing RB60.

He ran 18 times for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 21 of 27 targets for 169 yards.

He was on the field for 37 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Justice Hill for Aaron Jones Sr.?

    Yes, on the rest of the season. Aaron Jones Sr. projects 127 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 9 games), Justice Hill 36 (4.5 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Justice Hill. Justice Hill is listed questionable.

  • Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr. for Justice Hill?

    No. Keep Aaron Jones Sr.: he projects 127 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (14.1 a game over 9 games), Justice Hill 36 (4.5 a game over 8 games). For Week 9 the call starts Aaron Jones Sr. over Justice Hill. Justice Hill is listed questionable.

Should I drop Aaron Jones Sr.?Should I drop Justice Hill?

Week 9 on the board

Elsewhere on the board