Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Malik Willis?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games) and Malik Willis 158 (14.4 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 14.2 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

Start Baker Mayfield or Malik Willis? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 9:36 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.1; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 37 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Malik Willis

QB · MIA · at NYJ

Market projects: 14.2; fantasy pts
NYJ D vs QB: 15.1; 8th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 71 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 5

Should I drop Malik Willis for Baker Mayfield?

Not on these numbers alone. Malik Willis projects 158 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.4 a game over 11 games) and Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 14.2 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.1 points and Malik Willis at 14.2, a gap of 1.9. Drafters take Baker Mayfield at ADP 133 and Malik Willis at 197.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.1 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 7 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 14.2 fantasy points for Malik Willis, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Malik Willis is 182 passing yards, 31 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (9, 11 and 10 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 1.9 points ahead of Malik Willis on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Malik Willis and MIA visit NYJ on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

NYJ allowed 15.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 8th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 202 yards and 1-2 touchdowns a game against NYJ, with 0.2 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Malik Willis is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Through Week 5, Malik Willis played 100 percent of MIA snaps, dropped back 160 times and threw an average of 10.4 air yards per attempt.

Malik Willis, Week 2 against SF: 59 of 59 snaps, 14 of 23 passes for 197 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Malik Willis, Week 3 against KC: 73 of 73 snaps, 20 of 36 passes for 210 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception, 9 carries for 56 yards.

Malik Willis, Week 4 against MIN: 39 of 39 snaps, 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 11 yards.

Malik Willis, Week 5 against CIN: 66 of 66 snaps, 15 of 26 passes for 137 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions, 8 carries for 74 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Malik Willis played 4 games for GB and scored 51.2 PPR points, 12.8 a game, finishing QB45.

He completed 30 of 35 passes for 422 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and ran 22 times for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 10 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Malik Willis for Baker Mayfield?
Not on these numbers alone. Malik Willis projects 158 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (14.4 a game over 11 games) and Baker Mayfield 160 (16.0 a game over 10 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 14.2 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Malik Willis?
Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games) and Malik Willis 158 (14.4 a game over 11 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Malik Willis, 16.1 to 14.2 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.