Start Baker Mayfield or Michael Penix Jr.? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 4:41 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Baker Mayfield over Michael Penix Jr.

Start

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CAR · Questionable

Market projects: 16.0; fantasy pts
CAR D vs QB: 18.6; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 34 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 98%; Through Week 3

Sit

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs SF

Market projects: 15.1; fantasy pts
SF D vs QB: 14.9; 7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 37 of 100 at QB

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Baker Mayfield?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Michael Penix Jr., 16.0 to 15.1 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Baker Mayfield over Michael Penix Jr. in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Baker Mayfield at 16.0 points and Michael Penix Jr. at 15.1, a gap of 1.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.0 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 17 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (12, 13, 7 and 12 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.1 fantasy points for Michael Penix Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Michael Penix Jr. is 229 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 2 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (13, 13, 8 and 12 market sources).

That puts Baker Mayfield 1.0 points ahead of Michael Penix Jr. on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 18.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 5 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 237 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Michael Penix Jr. and ATL host SF on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

SF allowed 14.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against SF, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is listed as questionable with a thumb injury.

Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 3, Baker Mayfield played 98 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 118 times and threw an average of 8.9 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games for ATL and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He completed 166 of 276 passes for 1982 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Baker Mayfield?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Baker Mayfield projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Michael Penix Jr., 16.0 to 15.1 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.
Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Michael Penix Jr.?
No. Keep Baker Mayfield: he projects 160 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.0 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Baker Mayfield over Michael Penix Jr., 16.0 to 15.1 projected PPR points. Baker Mayfield is listed questionable.