Start Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr.? Week 7

Updated Oct 21, 3:11 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 8 answer posts Tuesday.

Start Bo Nix over Michael Penix Jr.

Start

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · at ARI

Market projects: 16.4; fantasy pts
ARI D vs QB: 22.1; 4th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: High; 86 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 100%; Through Week 6

Sit

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs SF

Market projects: 15.1; fantasy pts
SF D vs QB: 14.9; 7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 37 of 100 at QB

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Bo Nix?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Bo Nix projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Michael Penix Jr., 16.4 to 15.1 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 7 call

Start Bo Nix over Michael Penix Jr. in Week 7.

Market-based projections have Bo Nix at 16.4 points and Michael Penix Jr. at 15.1, a gap of 1.3. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.4 fantasy points for Bo Nix, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Bo Nix is 220 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 13 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 13, 12 and 9 market sources).

Player markets imply 15.1 fantasy points for Michael Penix Jr., with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Michael Penix Jr. is 230 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 2 rushing yards and 0.1 rushing touchdowns (13, 13, 8 and 12 market sources).

That puts Bo Nix 1.3 points ahead of Michael Penix Jr. on the market projections.

Week 7 matchups

Bo Nix and DEN visit ARI on Sunday at 4:05 PM ET.

ARI allowed 22.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 4th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 247 yards and 2.7 touchdowns a game against ARI, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

Michael Penix Jr. and ATL host SF on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

SF allowed 14.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 226 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against SF, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Bo Nix has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 7

Through Week 6, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 202 times and threw an average of 4.9 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 3 against LAR: 67 of 67 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 186 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 7 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 4 against SF: 65 of 65 snaps, 25 of 42 passes for 214 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 5 against LAC: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 123 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 6 against SEA: 60 of 60 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 107 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 3 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games for ATL and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He completed 166 of 276 passes for 1982 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 7 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 7, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Bo Nix?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Bo Nix projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Michael Penix Jr., 16.4 to 15.1 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Bo Nix for Michael Penix Jr.?
No. Keep Bo Nix: he projects 164 market-implied PPR points from Week 7 through Week 17 (16.4 a game over 10 games), Michael Penix Jr. 151 (15.1 a game over 10 games). For Week 7 the call starts Bo Nix over Michael Penix Jr., 16.4 to 15.1 projected PPR points.