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Start Baker Mayfield or Bo Nix? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 12:11 AM ET.

Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield

Nix projects lower, 15.6 to 16.0, and still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player: ADP 116 for Nix, 133 for Mayfield.

Start

Bo Nix

QB · DEN · at CAR

Market projects
15.6
recent weeks avg
CAR D vs QB
16.6
13th fewest to QBs (2026)
Snap share
100%
Through Week 8
Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · at CHI

Market projects
16.0
recent weeks avg
CHI D vs QB
19.9
10th most to QBs (2026)
Snap share
96%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Bo Nix?

Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games) and Bo Nix 130 (16.2 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Bo Nix at 15.6 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.0, a gap of 0.4. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. Bo Nix still gets the call because it also weighs where drafters take each player, ADP 116 against 133, and that outweighs a gap this size. No player market is posted for Bo Nix this week yet, so his 15.6 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (14.9, 16.3 and 15.7); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Baker Mayfield this week yet, so his 16.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7 and 8 (16.0 and 16.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Baker Mayfield yet. His market-based projections were 16.0 and 16.0 points in Weeks 7 and 8, an average of 16.0, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

No Week 9 player market is posted for Bo Nix yet. His market-based projections were 14.9, 16.3 and 15.7 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 15.6, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Baker Mayfield 0.4 points ahead of Bo Nix on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB visit CHI on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

CHI allowed 19.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 241 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against CHI, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

Bo Nix and DEN visit CAR on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

CAR allowed 16.6 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 6 games, the 13th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 208 yards and 1.2 touchdowns a game against CAR, with 0.5 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Baker Mayfield has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Bo Nix is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 8, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 134 times and threw an average of 8.4 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 8 against ATL: 0 of 3 passes for 0 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 15 yards.

Through Week 8, Bo Nix played 100 percent of DEN snaps, dropped back 268 times and threw an average of 5.4 air yards per attempt.

Bo Nix, Week 5 against LAC: 62 of 62 snaps, 16 of 27 passes for 123 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 10 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 6 against SEA: 60 of 60 snaps, 17 of 27 passes for 107 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 3 carries for 3 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 7 against ARI: 61 of 61 snaps, 15 of 29 passes for 222 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 5 carries for 75 yards.

Bo Nix, Week 8 against KC: 20 of 32 passes for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 5 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Bo Nix played 17 games for DEN and scored 315.8 PPR points, 18.6 a game, finishing QB7.

He completed 388 of 612 passes for 3931 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 83 times for 356 yards and 5 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 100 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Bo Nix?

    Not on these numbers alone. Baker Mayfield projects 129 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.1 a game over 8 games) and Bo Nix 130 (16.2 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.

  • Should I drop Bo Nix for Baker Mayfield?

    Not on these numbers alone. Bo Nix projects 130 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (16.2 a game over 8 games) and Baker Mayfield 129 (16.1 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield.

Should I drop Bo Nix?

Week 8 on the board

Elsewhere on the board