Start Trevor Lawrence or Baker Mayfield? Week 8

Updated Oct 28, 8:11 PM ET. Locks at kickoff, graded after. Week 9 answer posts Tuesday.

Latest

Oct 22, 4:48 PM ET: Barring setbacks, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield expected to start vs. Panthers (ESPN)

Start Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield

Start

Trevor Lawrence

QB · JAX · vs IND

Market projects: 17.9; fantasy pts
IND D vs QB: 18.1; 12th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Rising; 84 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 97%; Through Week 6

Sit

Baker Mayfield

QB · TB · vs ATL

Market projects: 16.1; fantasy pts
ATL D vs QB: 18.0; 13th most to QBs (2026)
Upside: Limited; 30 of 100 at QB
Snap share: 96%; Through Week 7

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Trevor Lawrence?

Yes, on the rest of the season. Trevor Lawrence projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield, 17.9 to 16.1 projected PPR points.

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Our Week 8 call

Start Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield in Week 8.

Market-based projections have Trevor Lawrence at 17.9 points and Baker Mayfield at 16.1, a gap of 1.8. Baker Mayfield's number is scaled up from a partial market: not every stat the position needs is posted yet, so the rest is estimated from what is. Drafters take Trevor Lawrence at ADP 97 and Baker Mayfield at 133.

What the market projects

Player markets imply 16.1 fantasy points for Baker Mayfield, with 80 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Baker Mayfield is 216 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns and 0.2 rushing touchdowns (13, 13 and 13 market sources).

Player markets imply 17.9 fantasy points for Trevor Lawrence, with 100 percent of the markets a QB needs posted.

The market-based projection for Trevor Lawrence is 245 passing yards, 1-2 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns (14, 14, 13 and 13 market sources).

That puts Trevor Lawrence 1.8 points ahead of Baker Mayfield on the market projections.

Week 8 matchups

Baker Mayfield and TB host ATL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

ATL allowed 18.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 13th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 271 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against ATL, with 0.4 interceptions a game.

Trevor Lawrence and JAX host IND on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

IND allowed 18.1 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 12th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 227 yards and 1.6 touchdowns a game against IND, with 0.3 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Trevor Lawrence has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Baker Mayfield is not on the injury report.

Trevor Lawrence is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 8

Through Week 7, Baker Mayfield played 96 percent of TB snaps, dropped back 129 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Baker Mayfield, Week 1 against CIN: 57 of 57 snaps, 23 of 28 passes for 216 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 4 carries for 31 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 2 against CLE: 65 of 65 snaps, 21 of 34 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 4 carries for 29 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 3 against MIN: 65 of 69 snaps, 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 2 carries for 6 yards.

Baker Mayfield, Week 7 against CAR: 57 of 63 snaps, 7 of 11 passes for 64 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Through Week 6, Trevor Lawrence played 97 percent of JAX snaps, dropped back 200 times and threw an average of 8.2 air yards per attempt.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 3 against NE: 59 of 62 snaps, 19 of 28 passes for 182 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 4 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 4 against CIN: 61 of 61 snaps, 18 of 23 passes for 227 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 2 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 5 against PHI: 72 of 72 snaps, 24 of 39 passes for 331 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 3 carries for 25 yards.

Trevor Lawrence, Week 6 against HOU: 71 of 71 snaps, 24 of 41 passes for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 carries for 12 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Baker Mayfield played 17 games for TB and scored 282.9 PPR points, 16.6 a game, finishing QB12.

He completed 343 of 543 passes for 3693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, and ran 55 times for 382 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Trevor Lawrence played 17 games for JAX and scored 350.2 PPR points, 20.6 a game, finishing QB4.

He completed 341 of 560 passes for 4007 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and ran 82 times for 359 yards and 9 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 98 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 8 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 8, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

Should I drop Baker Mayfield for Trevor Lawrence?
Yes, on the rest of the season. Trevor Lawrence projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield, 17.9 to 16.1 projected PPR points.
Should I drop Trevor Lawrence for Baker Mayfield?
No. Keep Trevor Lawrence: he projects 172 market-implied PPR points from Week 8 through Week 17 (17.2 a game over 10 games), Baker Mayfield 144 (16.0 a game over 9 games). For Week 8 the call starts Trevor Lawrence over Baker Mayfield, 17.9 to 16.1 projected PPR points.