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Start Geno Smith or Michael Penix Jr.? Week 10

Updated Nov 10, 3:21 PM ET.

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Geno Smith

Start

Michael Penix Jr.

QB · ATL · vs KC

Market projects
15.0
recent weeks avg
KC D vs QB
13.9
7th fewest to QBs (2026)
Upside
Limited
17 of 100 at QB
Snap share
99%
Through Week 9
Sit

Geno Smith

QB · NYJ · vs BUF

Market projects
15.0
recent weeks avg
BUF D vs QB
19.0
10th most to QBs (2026)
Upside
Moderate
57 of 100 at QB
Snap share
100%
Through Week 9

Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Geno Smith?

Not on these numbers alone. Michael Penix Jr. projects 103 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (14.7 a game over 7 games) and Geno Smith 105 (15.0 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Geno Smith.

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Michael Penix Jr. rookie cards

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Our Week 10 call

Start Michael Penix Jr. over Geno Smith in Week 10.

Market-based projections have Michael Penix Jr. at 15.0 points and Geno Smith at 15.0, a gap of 0.0. That is inside the noise of a single catch, so treat it as close to a coin flip. No player market is posted for Michael Penix Jr. this week yet, so his 15.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 (15.3, 14.6 and 15.0); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Geno Smith this week yet, so his 15.0 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 7, 8 and 9 (15.0, 15.6 and 14.3); the call is rebuilt when his market posts.

What the market projects

No Week 10 player market is posted for Michael Penix Jr. yet. His market-based projections were 15.3, 14.6 and 15.0 points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, an average of 15.0, which stands in until his Week 10 market posts.

No Week 10 player market is posted for Geno Smith yet. His market-based projections were 15.0, 15.6 and 14.3 points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, an average of 15.0, which stands in until his Week 10 market posts.

That puts Michael Penix Jr. 0.0 points ahead of Geno Smith on these projections.

Week 10 matchups

Michael Penix Jr. and ATL host KC on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

KC allowed 13.9 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 7th fewest in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 228 yards and a touchdown a game against KC, with 0.9 interceptions a game.

Geno Smith and NYJ host BUF on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

BUF allowed 19.0 fantasy points a game to QBs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Quarterbacks threw for 269 yards and 2.1 touchdowns a game against BUF, with 0.6 interceptions a game.

By points allowed to the position, Geno Smith has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Michael Penix Jr. is not on the injury report.

Geno Smith is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 10

Through Week 9, Michael Penix Jr. played 99 percent of ATL snaps, dropped back 93 times and threw an average of 7.1 air yards per attempt.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 7 against SF: 68 of 69 snaps, 25 of 33 passes for 213 yards, 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 2 carries for 2 yards.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 8 against TB: 53 of 53 snaps, 8 of 24 passes for 125 yards, 0 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, 5 carries for 11 yards.

Michael Penix Jr., Week 9 against CIN: 62 of 62 snaps, 20 of 31 passes for 162 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 3 carries for 50 yards.

Through Week 9, Geno Smith played 100 percent of NYJ snaps, dropped back 310 times and threw an average of 7.5 air yards per attempt.

Geno Smith, Week 6 against NE: 62 of 62 snaps, 20 of 30 passes for 252 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception, 1 carry for 0 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 7 against MIA: 59 of 59 snaps, 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 1 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 8 against LV: 64 of 64 snaps, 20 of 32 passes for 290 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, 1 carry for 4 yards.

Geno Smith, Week 9 against KC: 63 of 63 snaps, 18 of 32 passes for 165 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, 1 carry for 8 yards.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Michael Penix Jr. played 9 games for ATL and scored 123.3 PPR points, 13.7 a game, finishing QB33.

He completed 166 of 276 passes for 1982 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and ran 21 times for 70 yards and 1 touchdown.

He was on the field for 93 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

In 2025, Geno Smith played 15 games for LV and scored 190.9 PPR points, 12.7 a game, finishing QB23.

He completed 302 of 448 passes for 3025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, and ran 41 times for 109 yards and 0 touchdowns.

He was on the field for 97 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 10 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 10, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Michael Penix Jr. for Geno Smith?

    Not on these numbers alone. Michael Penix Jr. projects 103 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (14.7 a game over 7 games) and Geno Smith 105 (15.0 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Geno Smith.

  • Should I drop Geno Smith for Michael Penix Jr.?

    Not on these numbers alone. Geno Smith projects 105 market-implied PPR points from Week 10 through Week 17 (15.0 a game over 7 games) and Michael Penix Jr. 103 (14.7 a game over 7 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 10 the call starts Michael Penix Jr. over Geno Smith.

Week 10 on the board

Elsewhere on the board