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Start Luther Burden III or Josh Downs? Week 9

Updated Nov 3, 5:01 AM ET.

Start Luther Burden III over Josh Downs

Start

Luther Burden III

WR · CHI · vs TB

Market projects
12.5
recent weeks avg
TB D vs WR
29.9
12th fewest to WRs (2026)
Snap share
61%
Through Week 7
Target share
13%
Through Week 7
Sit

Josh Downs

WR · IND · vs DAL

Market projects
10.3
recent weeks avg
DAL D vs WR
35.5
10th most to WRs (2026)
Snap share
82%
Through Week 8
Target share
20%
Through Week 8

Should I drop Josh Downs for Luther Burden III?

Not on these numbers alone. Josh Downs projects 92 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 8 games) and Luther Burden III 93 (11.6 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs.

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Our Week 9 call

Start Luther Burden III over Josh Downs in Week 9.

Market-based projections have Luther Burden III at 12.5 points and Josh Downs at 10.3, a gap of 2.2. No player market is posted for Luther Burden III this week yet, so his 12.5 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (12.6, 12.7 and 12.1); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. No player market is posted for Josh Downs this week yet, so his 10.3 is the average of his market-based projections in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 (12.3, 10.9 and 7.8); the call is rebuilt when his market posts. Drafters take Luther Burden III at ADP 51 and Josh Downs at 96.

What the market projects

No Week 9 player market is posted for Luther Burden III yet. His market-based projections were 12.6, 12.7 and 12.1 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 12.5, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

No Week 9 player market is posted for Josh Downs yet. His market-based projections were 12.3, 10.9 and 7.8 points in Weeks 6, 7 and 8, an average of 10.3, which stands in until his Week 9 market posts.

That puts Luther Burden III 2.2 points ahead of Josh Downs on these projections.

Week 9 matchups

Luther Burden III and CHI host TB on Sunday at 8:20 PM ET.

TB allowed 29.9 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 12th fewest in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 135 yards and 0.7 touchdowns a game against TB.

Josh Downs and IND host DAL on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET.

DAL allowed 35.5 fantasy points a game to WRs this season over 7 games, the 10th most in the league.

Receivers caught passes for 163 yards and a touchdown a game against DAL.

By points allowed to the position, Josh Downs has the softer matchup.

Injury status

Luther Burden III is not on the injury report.

Josh Downs is not on the injury report.

Usage before Week 9

Through Week 7, Luther Burden III played 61 percent of CHI snaps, drew 13 percent of the targets, earned 13 percent of the air yards and had 17 percent of the red zone chances.

Luther Burden III, Week 7 against NE: 42 of 69 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 4 targets and 4 catches for 130 yards, 1 touchdown.

Through Week 8, Josh Downs played 82 percent of IND snaps, drew 20 percent of the targets, earned 26 percent of the air yards and had 11 percent of the red zone chances.

Josh Downs, Week 5 against PIT: 60 of 71 snaps, 6 targets and 3 catches for 47 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 6 against TEN: 71 of 83 snaps, 1 carry for 7 yards, 8 targets and 4 catches for 40 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 7 against MIN: 52 of 58 snaps, 4 targets and 2 catches for 18 yards.

Josh Downs, Week 8 against JAX: 5 targets and 4 catches for 23 yards, 1 touchdown.

Their 2025 seasons

In 2025, Luther Burden III played 15 games for CHI and scored 127.9 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR48.

He caught 47 of 60 targets for 652 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 4 red zone targets and 318 air yards.

He was on the field for 39 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Luther Burden III, Week 18 of 2025 against DET: 1 carry for 10 yards, 4 targets and 3 catches for 35 yards, 7.5 PPR points.

Luther Burden III, Week 17 of 2025 against SF: 38 of 66 snaps, 9 targets and 8 catches for 138 yards, 1 touchdown, 27.8 PPR points.

In 2025, Josh Downs played 16 games for IND and scored 136.4 PPR points, 8.5 a game, finishing WR44.

He caught 58 of 88 targets for 566 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 14 red zone targets and 422 air yards.

He was on the field for 58 percent of the offense's snaps in the games he played.

Their other Week 9 calls

Locks at kickoff, graded after. When the start/sit engine grades week 9, the call and the result appear on the public record, wrong ones included.

Drop or keep

  • Should I drop Josh Downs for Luther Burden III?

    Not on these numbers alone. Josh Downs projects 92 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.5 a game over 8 games) and Luther Burden III 93 (11.6 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs.

  • Should I drop Luther Burden III for Josh Downs?

    Not on these numbers alone. Luther Burden III projects 93 market-implied PPR points from Week 9 through Week 17 (11.6 a game over 8 games) and Josh Downs 92 (11.5 a game over 8 games), too close to separate, so the roster spot decides it. For Week 9 the call starts Luther Burden III over Josh Downs.

Should I drop Josh Downs?Should I drop Luther Burden III?

Week 8 on the board

Elsewhere on the board