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Trade A.J. Brown for Travis Kelce? No, Brown is worth 12 more.

No on value. A.J. Brown is worth 37 rest of season and Travis Kelce 25, so giving up Brown costs 12. Brown rates 13.2 market points a game with 9 games left, Kelce 11.9 with 10. On usage, Brown has drawn 22 percent of NE targets; Kelce has drawn 20 percent of KC targets. Brown is at MIA in Week 8 (3rd fewest points allowed to WRs); Kelce is at DEN in Week 8 (9th most points allowed to TEs). A.J. Brown is listed Questionable (ankle).

The verdict, Week 8

Keeping A.J. Brown wins by 12.

A.J. Brown 3725 Travis Kelce

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A.J. Brown

WR19NEQuestionable

37

value, #42

Pts/game
13.2
Games left
9
Bye
11
A.J. Brown weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
no projectionno projectionno projection3.315.513.2

Travis Kelce

TE4KC

25

value, #50

Pts/game
11.9
Games left
10
Bye
5
Travis Kelce weekly market-based points
Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8
12.611.9no projection12.711.111.2

Where the values come from

Brown is the 19th receiver on the chart and 42nd overall. His 13.2 a game is 4.1 above the replacement receiver's 9.1, over 9 games left with his bye in Week 11, which is how he comes to 37.

Kelce is the 4th tight end on the chart and 50th overall. His 11.9 a game is 2.5 above the replacement tight end's 9.4, over 10 games left with no bye left, which is how he comes to 25.

The weekly projections

Parlae's market-based projections had A.J. Brown at 3.3 in Week 6, 15.5 in Week 7 and 13.2 in Week 8, a median of 13.2 points a game, up 9.9 from his first frozen week to his latest.

Parlae's market-based projections had Travis Kelce at 12.6 in Week 3, 11.9 in Week 4, 12.7 in Week 6, 11.1 in Week 7 and 11.2 in Week 8, a median of 11.9 points a game, down 1.4 from his first frozen week to his latest.

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Points so far against the price

A.J. Brown has scored 19.1 PPR points in 3 games, 6.4 a game, 6.8 a game less than the 13.2 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished WR11 with 220.3 PPR points in 15 games with PHI, 14.7 a game.

Week 1 vs SEA: 5.6 points (WR66 that week), 3 of 4 targets for 26 yards, 44 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs NYJ: 5.7 points (WR59 that week), 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards, 76 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs CHI: 7.8 points (WR35 that week), 3 of 6 targets for 48 yards, 91 percent of snaps.

Travis Kelce has scored 70.3 PPR points in 6 games, 11.7 a game, level with the 11.9 he is projected for from here.

Last season he finished TE3 with 193.2 PPR points in 17 games, 11.4 a game.

Week 1 vs DEN: 10.1 points (TE16 that week), 3 of 5 targets for 71 yards, 71 percent of snaps.

Week 2 vs IND: 25.1 points (TE2 that week), 9 of 11 targets for 101 yards, 1 touchdown, 85 percent of snaps.

Week 3 vs MIA: 13.9 points (TE11 that week), 2 of 2 targets for 59 yards, 1 touchdown, 79 percent of snaps.

Week 4 vs LV: 3.5 points (TE32 that week), 2 of 4 targets for 15 yards, 83 percent of snaps.

Week 6 vs LAC: 9.3 points (TE18 that week), 4 of 5 targets for 53 yards, 66 percent of snaps.

Week 7 vs SEA: 8.4 points (TE20 that week), 4 of 8 targets for 44 yards, 83 percent of snaps.

Usage a game this season

Through Week 7, A.J. Brown has averaged 6.7 targets and 3.0 catches for 34 yards a game on 68 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 3 times inside the 20, 15 percent of his team's chances there, and has not scored in 3 games.

In Week 7 against CHI he had 6 targets on 91 percent of the snaps.

Through Week 7, Travis Kelce has averaged 5.8 targets and 4.0 catches for 57 yards a game on 78 percent of the snaps.

He has been targeted or handed the ball 3 times inside the 20, 5 percent of his team's chances there, and has scored 2 touchdowns in 6 games.

In Week 7 against SEA he had 8 targets on 83 percent of the snaps.

Schedule and next matchup

A trade made now buys Week 8 through Week 17. A.J. Brown has 9 games in it with his bye in Week 11; Travis Kelce has 10 games with no bye left.

MIA, Brown's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 23.8 PPR points a game to WRs this season over 6 games, the 3rd fewest to WRs of 32.

DEN, Kelce's Week 8 opponent, has allowed 16.0 PPR points a game to TEs this season over 7 games, the 9th most to TEs of 32.

What would even it

The side getting Travis Kelce would want about 12 more added to make it even: a player like Denzel Boston, valued at 13. Two players for Brown also costs that side a roster spot.

Denzel Boston's player page

Other trades for A.J. Brown and Travis Kelce

The full Week 8 trade value chart

Week 8 on the board

Common questions

  • Should I trade A.J. Brown for Travis Kelce?

    No on value: A.J. Brown is worth 37 and Travis Kelce 25, a loss of 12. It can still help a lineup that needs a tight end more than it needs Brown.

  • Who has more rest-of-season value, A.J. Brown or Travis Kelce?

    A.J. Brown, 37 to 25. He rates 13.2 market points a game over 9 games left, against 11.9 over 10 for Travis Kelce, each measured above a replacement starter at his own position.

  • How are these trade values calculated?

    Each player's points per game is the median of the market-based PPR points we froze before each week's first kickoff, Weeks 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. A replacement starter's rate is subtracted and the rest is multiplied by his games from Week 8 to Week 17, bye taken out. No expert opinion is involved.

By the Parlae deskValues updated Oct 29, 2026 at 1:31 PM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number