Ace Bailey vs Keldon Johnson: who to start in Week 1
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 66.8 for Keldon Johnson. Over the season, Ace Bailey leads in both formats: 24.5 fantasy points a game to 22.3, and 173rd against 174th in 9-cat. The two go close together on our board, which is our own ranking order from 2025-26 and 2026-27 box scores, not ADP.
Updated Oct 25, 10:29 AM ET. Rechecked every 30 minutes.
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- Points leagues
- #143
- 24.5 FP/G, slot 12.11, $3
- 9-cat leagues
- #173
- -3.1 z, slot 15.05
The pick in points and 9-cat leagues.
- Points leagues
- #162
- 22.3 FP/G, slot 14.06
- 9-cat leagues
- #174
- -3.1 z, slot 15.06
The call
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 24.5 fantasy points per game against 22.3, 143rd on our board to 162nd.
9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (173rd to 174th).
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 4 (REB, FG%, FT% and TO).
Per 36 minutes, Keldon Johnson produces more: 34.8 fantasy points to 32.5, on 23.0 minutes a night against 27.1. He does it in fewer minutes, so a bigger role would widen the gap.
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 66.8 for Keldon Johnson.
Slots are where our board's order lands in a 12-team snake draft (round.pick), and dollars are auction value over replacement for 12 teams with $200 each. Neither is ADP: no free draft-position feed lets us republish it.
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Per game, side by side
| Per game | Ace Bailey | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points per game | 24.5 | 22.3 |
| Minutes | 27.1 | 23.0 |
| PointsPTS | 13.2 | 12.4 |
| ReboundsREB | 4.4 | 5.4 |
| AssistsAST | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| StealsSTL | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| BlocksBLK | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Threes3PM | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Field goal %FG% | 43.6% | 52.3% |
| Free throw %FT% | 72.5% | 78.4% |
| TurnoversTO | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Games, 2025-26 | 72 | 82 |
Bold is the better number. The line blends 2025-26 with 2026-27 games as they are played, the same numbers the rankings use.
Per 36 minutes
| Per 36 | Ace Bailey | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fantasy points | 32.5 | 34.8 |
| Points | 17.6 | 19.3 |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 8.4 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Threes | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 1.4 |
Each per-game number divided by minutes and scaled to 36: the rate a bigger role would carry.
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9-category z-scores
| Category | Ace Bailey | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PointsPTS | -0.5 | -0.7 |
| ReboundsREB | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| AssistsAST | -0.9 | -1.1 |
| StealsSTL | -0.8 | -1.1 |
| BlocksBLK | +0.2 | -1.2 |
| Threes3PM | +0.2 | -0.6 |
| Field goal percentageFG% | -1.0 | +0.6 |
| Free throw percentageFT% | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| TurnoversTO | +0.5 | +1.2 |
| Total | -3.1 | -3.1 |
Each number is standard deviations above or below the top 156 players (a 12-team league's rosters). Field goal and free throw percentage are weighted by attempts, and turnovers count against.
If you punt a category
Punting points, assists, steals, blocks and threes flips the 9-cat answer to Keldon Johnson.
| Punt | Ace Bailey | Keldon Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| PTS | -2.6 (#198) | -2.4 (#191) |
| REB | -2.6 (#172) | -3.1 (#195) |
| AST | -2.3 (#168) | -2.0 (#150) |
| STL | -2.4 (#157) | -2.1 (#147) |
| BLK | -3.5 (#194) | -2.1 (#142) |
| 3PM | -3.4 (#200) | -2.5 (#167) |
| FG% | -2.2 (#131) | -4.0 (#207) |
| FT% | -2.9 (#171) | -3.0 (#179) |
| TO | -3.7 (#165) | -4.4 (#189) |
Value is the sum of the other eight z-scores, recomputed with the punted category left out of the pool that sets them; the rank is among all 392 ranked players.
Week 1 (Oct 19-25)
- Ace Bailey: 3 games (Wed @MEM, Fri NOP, Sun LAL).
- Keldon Johnson: 3 games (Tue OKC, Fri HOU, Sat @DAL), 1 back-to-back.
Recent games
- Ace Bailey: 23.4 fantasy points a game over his last 2 of 2026-27, against 24.5 on the board.
- Keldon Johnson: 19.2 fantasy points a game over his last 3 of 2026-27, against 22.3 on the board.
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Other picks at the same spot
NBA fantasy rankings · Draft cheat sheet · Sleepers
Is Ace Bailey playing tonight? · Is Keldon Johnson playing tonight?
Rookie cards: Ace Bailey
Common questions
Who is better for the rest of the 2026-27 season, Ace Bailey or Keldon Johnson?
Points leagues: Ace Bailey. 24.5 fantasy points per game against 22.3, 143rd on our board to 162nd. 9-cat leagues: Ace Bailey again, -3.1 in summed z-scores against -3.1 (173rd to 174th).
Who wins more categories, Ace Bailey or Keldon Johnson?
Category by category, Ace Bailey is ahead in 5 (PTS, AST, STL, BLK and 3PM) and Keldon Johnson in 4 (REB, FG%, FT% and TO).
Who should I start in Week 1, Ace Bailey or Keldon Johnson?
Ace Bailey plays 3 games in Week 1 (Oct 19-25), Keldon Johnson 3. For that week alone, start Ace Bailey: 73.4 projected fantasy points to 66.8 for Keldon Johnson.
By the Parlae deskBoard updated Oct 25, 2026 at 10:29 AM ETHow this is builtReport a wrong number